Microsoft’s market capitalization, currently near $3.75 trillion amid a share price around $505, faces balanced probabilities across end-2026 ranges due to offsetting forces in cloud momentum and capital intensity. Azure revenue accelerated to 43% growth in fiscal Q4 2026, driving overall revenue up 18% to $331.8 billion and supporting a $678 billion commercial backlog, yet elevated capex guidance exceeding $175 billion for fiscal 2027 raises margin and free-cash-flow concerns. Forward multiples near 25x earnings sit below historical averages, reflecting trader caution over AI monetization timelines versus analyst price targets above $570. October earnings and macroeconomic data on rates and tech spending will likely serve as near-term swing factors before year-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於低於2.50兆美元 0
2.50-3.00兆美元 0
3.00-3.50兆美元 0
3.50-4.00兆美元 0
最新
最新
2026-12-31
低於2.50兆美元
-
2.50-3.00兆美元
-
3.00-3.50兆美元
-
3.50-4.00兆美元
-
4.00-4.50兆美元
-
4.50兆-5.00兆美元
-
5兆美元以上
-
低於2.50兆美元 0
2.50-3.00兆美元 0
3.00-3.50兆美元 0
3.50-4.00兆美元 0
最新
最新
2026-12-31
低於2.50兆美元
$0 交易量
-
2.50-3.00兆美元
$0 交易量
-
3.00-3.50兆美元
$0 交易量
-
3.50-4.00兆美元
$0 交易量
-
4.00-4.50兆美元
$0 交易量
-
4.50兆-5.00兆美元
$0 交易量
-
5兆美元以上
$0 交易量
-
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s market capitalization, currently near $3.75 trillion amid a share price around $505, faces balanced probabilities across end-2026 ranges due to offsetting forces in cloud momentum and capital intensity. Azure revenue accelerated to 43% growth in fiscal Q4 2026, driving overall revenue up 18% to $331.8 billion and supporting a $678 billion commercial backlog, yet elevated capex guidance exceeding $175 billion for fiscal 2027 raises margin and free-cash-flow concerns. Forward multiples near 25x earnings sit below historical averages, reflecting trader caution over AI monetization timelines versus analyst price targets above $570. October earnings and macroeconomic data on rates and tech spending will likely serve as near-term swing factors before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
市場開放時間： Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETThis market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s market capitalization, currently near $3.75 trillion amid a share price around $505, faces balanced probabilities across end-2026 ranges due to offsetting forces in cloud momentum and capital intensity. Azure revenue accelerated to 43% growth in fiscal Q4 2026, driving overall revenue up 18% to $331.8 billion and supporting a $678 billion commercial backlog, yet elevated capex guidance exceeding $175 billion for fiscal 2027 raises margin and free-cash-flow concerns. Forward multiples near 25x earnings sit below historical averages, reflecting trader caution over AI monetization timelines versus analyst price targets above $570. October earnings and macroeconomic data on rates and tech spending will likely serve as near-term swing factors before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETMicrosoft’s market capitalization, currently near $3.75 trillion amid a share price around $505, faces balanced probabilities across end-2026 ranges due to offsetting forces in cloud momentum and capital intensity. Azure revenue accelerated to 43% growth in fiscal Q4 2026, driving overall revenue up 18% to $331.8 billion and supporting a $678 billion commercial backlog, yet elevated capex guidance exceeding $175 billion for fiscal 2027 raises margin and free-cash-flow concerns. Forward multiples near 25x earnings sit below historical averages, reflecting trader caution over AI monetization timelines versus analyst price targets above $570. October earnings and macroeconomic data on rates and tech spending will likely serve as near-term swing factors before year-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions