Recent rejection of a formal pardon request for former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo by the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights under interim President José María Balcázar has reinforced trader expectations. The July 2026 filing, submitted by a congressman, failed to meet procedural requirements of the Presidential Pardons Commission and was declared inadmissible, closing the door on clemency before the current administration ends. No subsequent grants or new filings have advanced, and reports confirm no pardon for Castillo or Alejandro Toledo as of mid-August. With limited time remaining in 2026 and institutional barriers intact, these developments align with the 84% implied probability assigned to “No.” Any future shift would require a new administration or successful legal challenge altering eligibility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於16% 機率
$42,918 交易量
$42,918 交易量
2026-12-31
16% 機率
$42,918 交易量
$42,918 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rejection of a formal pardon request for former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo by the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights under interim President José María Balcázar has reinforced trader expectations. The July 2026 filing, submitted by a congressman, failed to meet procedural requirements of the Presidential Pardons Commission and was declared inadmissible, closing the door on clemency before the current administration ends. No subsequent grants or new filings have advanced, and reports confirm no pardon for Castillo or Alejandro Toledo as of mid-August. With limited time remaining in 2026 and institutional barriers intact, these developments align with the 84% implied probability assigned to “No.” Any future shift would require a new administration or successful legal challenge altering eligibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
交易量
$42,918結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rejection of a formal pardon request for former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo by the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights under interim President José María Balcázar has reinforced trader expectations. The July 2026 filing, submitted by a congressman, failed to meet procedural requirements of the Presidential Pardons Commission and was declared inadmissible, closing the door on clemency before the current administration ends. No subsequent grants or new filings have advanced, and reports confirm no pardon for Castillo or Alejandro Toledo as of mid-August. With limited time remaining in 2026 and institutional barriers intact, these developments align with the 84% implied probability assigned to “No.” Any future shift would require a new administration or successful legal challenge altering eligibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$42,918結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent rejection of a formal pardon request for former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo by the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights under interim President José María Balcázar has reinforced trader expectations. The July 2026 filing, submitted by a congressman, failed to meet procedural requirements of the Presidential Pardons Commission and was declared inadmissible, closing the door on clemency before the current administration ends. No subsequent grants or new filings have advanced, and reports confirm no pardon for Castillo or Alejandro Toledo as of mid-August. With limited time remaining in 2026 and institutional barriers intact, these developments align with the 84% implied probability assigned to “No.” Any future shift would require a new administration or successful legal challenge altering eligibility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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