Pierre Poilievre secured a decisive 87.4% endorsement in the Conservative Party’s mandatory leadership review at the January 2026 national convention in Calgary, following the party’s April 2025 federal election defeat. This strong internal backing, which exceeded Stephen Harper’s comparable 2005 result, has stabilized his position as leader amid ongoing polling deficits against Prime Minister Mark Carney and lower personal approval ratings. With the next scheduled election not due until 2029 and no active challenges or constitutional triggers emerging in the first half of 2026, trader consensus assigns an 87.5% probability that Poilievre will remain in place through December 31, 2026. Recent surveys continue to highlight competitive dynamics within the party base, yet the absence of imminent procedural or caucus-driven pressure supports expectations of continuity.