The Patriots’ 29-26 upset victory over the previously unbeaten Bills in Week 4 at Highmark Stadium has positioned New England with a 1-0 series lead heading into the December 6 rematch at Gillette Stadium. Drake Maye overcame early turnovers to throw three touchdowns, including a late go-ahead score to Efton Chism, while the Bills committed costly mistakes and saw Josh Allen intercepted late. Buffalo’s strong early-season form under new head coach Joe Brady and Josh Allen’s MVP-level play suggest they remain capable of winning on the road, supporting the slim market edge for a split. Yet the Patriots’ home-field advantage, improved defensive execution against Allen, and recent momentum in the rivalry tilt trader consensus toward either a Patriots series win or a tie as the most probable outcomes.