Pabel Muñoz, the incumbent seeking re-election with the Alianza Ciudadana coalition, leads the Polymarket at 56.5% implied probability amid a fragmented field ahead of the November 29 vote. Recent polls, including an AtlasIntel survey from early October, place him first in vote intention at 21%, ahead of Harold Burbano at 16.6% and Jorge Yunda at 11.9%, though a majority of respondents expressed preference for different leadership. The wide candidate list, high share of undecided voters, and modest gaps between frontrunners sustain competitive pricing, with the market reflecting name recognition and incumbency advantages rather than a decisive edge. The official campaign begins November 12 with mandatory debates scheduled, while the council addresses a temporary replacement during candidate licenses; shifts in late polling or turnout patterns in urban districts could widen or narrow the current consensus.