President Aleksandar Vučić’s June 27, 2026 announcement that he would resign within weeks and trigger early presidential and parliamentary elections under sustained protest pressure remains the central driver of trader expectations for National Assembly dissolution. A subsequent no-confidence vote against the government in early August clarified procedural paths to snap polls but left timing unresolved, with officials signaling autumn dates while the regular mandate runs until December 2027. Under Serbia’s constitution, dissolution by the president initiates elections within 45–60 days, and the ruling SNS coalition’s history of short-notice calls supports elevated implied probabilities for action before year-end. Key variables include Vučić’s exact resignation timeline, coalition negotiations, and any further institutional or street-level developments that could accelerate or delay the process.