Japan's lower house was dissolved in January 2026 for a February snap election that returned Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to office with continued Liberal Democratic Party support. Since then, the Diet has convened regular and special sessions focused on the fiscal 2026 budget, tax measures, and defense policy without any announced plans or procedural signals for another dissolution. With the next scheduled lower-house election years away and no evident coalition fractures or confidence crisis, traders assign a 95% implied probability against further dissolution this calendar year. Late-year developments such as leadership challenges or sudden legislative gridlock remain the only plausible triggers that could alter this consensus.