Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, including Iran's blockade since late February and active U.S. naval enforcement, have kept vessel transits at minimal levels—often single digits daily versus a normal baseline near 85—through late September. Recent Iranian proposals to reopen the chokepoint within seven days conditional on eased U.S. pressure were rejected, with negotiations stalled as of September 27. This sustained disruption, reflected in ship-tracking data showing no meaningful recovery by the September 30 resolution date, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on "No." Tail risks remain limited but include any abrupt diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral de-escalation that could restore flows before final data confirmation.