Persistent Iranian IRGC claims of targeting tankers via mines and projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside UKMTO-confirmed strikes on multiple vessels through early November 2026, continue to shape trader views on daily resolution markets. Traffic has recovered only modestly to roughly 9–12% of pre-crisis levels, with Brent crude settling near $92.70 on November 11 amid de-escalation hopes, though war-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at 7–9% of hull value and charter rates exceed $1 million daily for Gulf loadings. Recent incidents, including four reported tanker explosions on November 12 and at least 11 attacks in the prior week, underscore sustained kinetic activity despite diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC signals on rates, any verified diplomatic progress on sanctions relief, and daily incident reports that could shift implied probabilities on specific dates.