伊朗領導層改變... ？

伊朗領導層改變... ？ — 討論

0x1C134Acf6411D3c799bff067a4A35B049e11ce0E-1762519910439 · 2026-03-09T02:59:17.336Z

關於伊朗領導層改變... ？的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

$23,479,860 交易量

2026-08-15

8月15日

$60,914 交易量

<1%

8月22日

$31,948 交易量

8月31日

$1,148,876 交易量

9月30日

$438,691 交易量

10月31日

$8,802 交易量

10%

11月30日

$10,250 交易量

13%

12月31日

$3,997,040 交易量

18%

2027年6月30日

$236,962 交易量

26%

$23,479,860 交易量

8月15日

$60,914 交易量

<1%

8月22日

$31,948 交易量

8月31日

$1,148,876 交易量

9月30日

$438,691 交易量

10月31日

$8,802 交易量

10%

11月30日

$10,250 交易量

13%

12月31日

$3,997,040 交易量

18%

2027年6月30日

$236,962 交易量

26%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗領導層改變... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2027年6月30日" at 26%, followed by "12月31日" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗領導層改變... ？" has generated $23.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗領導層改變... ？," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" is "2027年6月30日" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12月31日" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "伊朗領導層改變... ？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $23.5 million traded on “伊朗領導層改變... ？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "伊朗領導層改變... ？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 26¢ for "2027年6月30日" in the "伊朗領導層改變... ？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 26% chance that "2027年6月30日" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 26¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 74¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "伊朗領導層改變... ？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "伊朗領導層改變... ？" market has an active community of 1,094 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "伊朗領導層改變... ？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

伊朗領導層改變... ？

伊朗領導層改變... ？

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "伊朗領導層改變... ？" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "伊朗領導層改變... ？" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "伊朗領導層改變... ？"?

What are the current odds for "伊朗領導層改變... ？"?

How will "伊朗領導層改變... ？" be resolved?

Can I follow "伊朗領導層改變... ？" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "伊朗領導層改變... ？"?

What does a price of 26¢ for "2027年6月30日" mean?

When does the "伊朗領導層改變... ？" market close?

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