Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 88% implied probability in the market because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February strikes. Traders view institutional continuity under the current clerical and IRGC framework as the dominant near-term outcome through year-end, reinforced by recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian confirming meetings and asserting full health despite Mojtaba’s prolonged absence from public view. Speculation over injuries, limited proof-of-life evidence, and isolated reports of elite discussions about future succession have not shifted the consensus, keeping alternatives such as “No Head of State” or other clerics below 6%. A fragile ceasefire and ongoing hybrid threats have not produced verifiable leadership changes that would alter resolution expectations by December 31.