Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as supreme leader in early March amid IRGC influence and hardliner consolidation, despite historical resistance to hereditary transitions. This rapid elevation, backed by security apparatus ties, has anchored trader consensus around his continued tenure through year-end. Other listed figures, including interim council members like Alireza Arafi and reformist names, reflect pre-succession speculation now diminished by the confirmed outcome and absence of subsequent leadership shifts. Scheduled events or internal pressures within the remaining months could still introduce volatility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 82.7%
沒有國家元首 4.0%
雷扎·巴列維 3.2%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲 1.9%
$38,744,538 交易量
$38,744,538 交易量
2026-12-30
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊
83%
沒有國家元首
4%
雷扎·巴列維
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
2%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德
2%
艾哈邁德·瓦希迪
1%
哈桑·魯哈尼
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
1%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
1%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
<1%
穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里
<1%
薩迪克·拉里賈尼
<1%
哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里
<1%
瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維
<1%
馬蘇德·拉賈維
<1%
賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾
<1%
穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪
<1%
薩迪格·馬哈蘇利
<1%
賽義德·賈利利
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
納西爾·侯賽尼
<1%
艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼
<1%
阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊
<1%
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 82.7%
沒有國家元首 4.0%
雷扎·巴列維 3.2%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲 1.9%
$38,744,538 交易量
$38,744,538 交易量
2026-12-30
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊
$6,103,358 交易量
83%
沒有國家元首
$1,149,709 交易量
4%
雷扎·巴列維
$673,450 交易量
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$2,313,343 交易量
2%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德
$1,121,246 交易量
2%
艾哈邁德·瓦希迪
$777,533 交易量
1%
哈桑·魯哈尼
$944,950 交易量
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$1,432,610 交易量
1%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
$1,020,448 交易量
1%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫
$918,498 交易量
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$833,733 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里
$438,131 交易量
<1%
薩迪克·拉里賈尼
$536,820 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里
$3,147,937 交易量
<1%
瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維
$807,213 交易量
<1%
馬蘇德·拉賈維
$399,754 交易量
<1%
賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安
$3,694,860 交易量
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
$147,326 交易量
<1%
Navid Shomali
$214,871 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$199,479 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$836,848 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾
$434,728 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪
$3,351,421 交易量
<1%
薩迪格·馬哈蘇利
$239,452 交易量
<1%
賽義德·賈利利
$389,688 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$5,192,354 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$282,115 交易量
<1%
納西爾·侯賽尼
$254,854 交易量
<1%
艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼
$306,892 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊
$344,053 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as supreme leader in early March amid IRGC influence and hardliner consolidation, despite historical resistance to hereditary transitions. This rapid elevation, backed by security apparatus ties, has anchored trader consensus around his continued tenure through year-end. Other listed figures, including interim council members like Alireza Arafi and reformist names, reflect pre-succession speculation now diminished by the confirmed outcome and absence of subsequent leadership shifts. Scheduled events or internal pressures within the remaining months could still introduce volatility.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$38,744,538結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as supreme leader in early March amid IRGC influence and hardliner consolidation, despite historical resistance to hereditary transitions. This rapid elevation, backed by security apparatus ties, has anchored trader consensus around his continued tenure through year-end. Other listed figures, including interim council members like Alireza Arafi and reformist names, reflect pre-succession speculation now diminished by the confirmed outcome and absence of subsequent leadership shifts. Scheduled events or internal pressures within the remaining months could still introduce volatility.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$38,744,538結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as supreme leader in early March amid IRGC influence and hardliner consolidation, despite historical resistance to hereditary transitions. This rapid elevation, backed by security apparatus ties, has anchored trader consensus around his continued tenure through year-end. Other listed figures, including interim council members like Alireza Arafi and reformist names, reflect pre-succession speculation now diminished by the confirmed outcome and absence of subsequent leadership shifts. Scheduled events or internal pressures within the remaining months could still introduce volatility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions