**Traders assign a 97% probability against full U.S. embassy evacuation from Beirut by June 30 because the mission has already reduced to essential personnel since February 2026, with core diplomatic functions continuing amid a Level 4 travel advisory.** Recent U.S.-facilitated ceasefire extensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including agreements reached in early June on pilot zones and southern Beirut restrictions, have lowered immediate escalation risks from cross-border strikes or regional spillover. Official embassy alerts through June 4 emphasize monitoring rather than withdrawal, and commercial flight options plus shelter-in-place guidance for citizens reflect calibrated risk management rather than imminent closure. High confidence reflects the absence of new triggers in the final weeks of the resolution window and the State Department’s pattern of targeted drawdowns without full departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown of the truce through major Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, Iranian missile activity prompting broader U.S. force protection measures, or rapid deterioration in Lebanese internal security that forces complete personnel relocation before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$82,723 交易量
$82,723 交易量
2026-06-30
$82,723 交易量
$82,723 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Traders assign a 97% probability against full U.S. embassy evacuation from Beirut by June 30 because the mission has already reduced to essential personnel since February 2026, with core diplomatic functions continuing amid a Level 4 travel advisory.** Recent U.S.-facilitated ceasefire extensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including agreements reached in early June on pilot zones and southern Beirut restrictions, have lowered immediate escalation risks from cross-border strikes or regional spillover. Official embassy alerts through June 4 emphasize monitoring rather than withdrawal, and commercial flight options plus shelter-in-place guidance for citizens reflect calibrated risk management rather than imminent closure.
High confidence reflects the absence of new triggers in the final weeks of the resolution window and the State Department’s pattern of targeted drawdowns without full departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown of the truce through major Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, Iranian missile activity prompting broader U.S. force protection measures, or rapid deterioration in Lebanese internal security that forces complete personnel relocation before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
市場開放時間： May 26, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
交易量
$82,723結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Traders assign a 97% probability against full U.S. embassy evacuation from Beirut by June 30 because the mission has already reduced to essential personnel since February 2026, with core diplomatic functions continuing amid a Level 4 travel advisory.** Recent U.S.-facilitated ceasefire extensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including agreements reached in early June on pilot zones and southern Beirut restrictions, have lowered immediate escalation risks from cross-border strikes or regional spillover. Official embassy alerts through June 4 emphasize monitoring rather than withdrawal, and commercial flight options plus shelter-in-place guidance for citizens reflect calibrated risk management rather than imminent closure.
High confidence reflects the absence of new triggers in the final weeks of the resolution window and the State Department’s pattern of targeted drawdowns without full departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown of the truce through major Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, Iranian missile activity prompting broader U.S. force protection measures, or rapid deterioration in Lebanese internal security that forces complete personnel relocation before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
交易量
$82,723結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 97% probability against full U.S. embassy evacuation from Beirut by June 30 because the mission has already reduced to essential personnel since February 2026, with core diplomatic functions continuing amid a Level 4 travel advisory.** Recent U.S.-facilitated ceasefire extensions between Israel and Hezbollah, including agreements reached in early June on pilot zones and southern Beirut restrictions, have lowered immediate escalation risks from cross-border strikes or regional spillover. Official embassy alerts through June 4 emphasize monitoring rather than withdrawal, and commercial flight options plus shelter-in-place guidance for citizens reflect calibrated risk management rather than imminent closure. High confidence reflects the absence of new triggers in the final weeks of the resolution window and the State Department’s pattern of targeted drawdowns without full departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown of the truce through major Israeli strikes on Beirut suburbs, Iranian missile activity prompting broader U.S. force protection measures, or rapid deterioration in Lebanese internal security that forces complete personnel relocation before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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