Persistent Iranian attacks on tankers, elevated war-risk insurance premiums exceeding 30 times normal rates, and unresolved issues including mines and competing Iranian- and U.S.-controlled transit routes continue to constrain Strait of Hormuz traffic to roughly 4-10% of pre-February 2026 levels, underpinning the 90.5% market-implied probability against normalization by November 30. Recent record weekly attacks through early October, combined with sanctions exposure and carrier rerouting, have kept Brent crude near $101-125 per barrel while limiting daily transits far below the historical 80-140 range. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched barriers, though a durable U.S.-Iran ceasefire, mine clearance, or coordinated naval protocols could still enable faster recovery in oil throughput and vessel volumes.