Ongoing US and Israeli strikes have targeted Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude export terminal handling roughly 90% of its oil shipments, yet Tehran retains operational control despite export disruptions from naval blockades and Hormuz tensions. Recent satellite data shows limited terminal activity and tanker queues through early October 2026, with Iranian officials reporting sustained loadings even after prior attacks. Fragile ceasefire talks and US statements weighing occupation or blockade options have not produced ground operations or a shift in sovereignty. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to loss of Iranian control by year-end, reflecting the absence of confirmed invasion plans and Iran's demonstrated resilience in maintaining the facility amid conflict. Scheduled diplomatic efforts and any Hormuz-related escalations could influence near-term assessments.