The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience following the 2025–2026 conflicts, including leadership succession after Ali Khamenei's death and minimal reported defections in the security apparatus. Protests tied to economic strain and prior unrest were contained through arrests and force, while institutional structures such as the Supreme National Security Council and IRGC maintained cohesion under Mojtaba Khamenei. With roughly two weeks remaining before the September 30 resolution date, traders price the near-certain outcome at 99.5% against regime fall, reflecting the absence of coordinated elite fractures, unified opposition networks, or rapid military collapse. Late developments like sudden escalation in external strikes, large-scale security defections, or synchronized nationwide mobilization could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-likelihood within the narrow timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
<1% 機率
$2,291,274 交易量
$2,291,274 交易量
2026-09-30
是
<1% 機率
$2,291,274 交易量
$2,291,274 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience following the 2025–2026 conflicts, including leadership succession after Ali Khamenei's death and minimal reported defections in the security apparatus. Protests tied to economic strain and prior unrest were contained through arrests and force, while institutional structures such as the Supreme National Security Council and IRGC maintained cohesion under Mojtaba Khamenei. With roughly two weeks remaining before the September 30 resolution date, traders price the near-certain outcome at 99.5% against regime fall, reflecting the absence of coordinated elite fractures, unified opposition networks, or rapid military collapse. Late developments like sudden escalation in external strikes, large-scale security defections, or synchronized nationwide mobilization could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-likelihood within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$2,291,274結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience following the 2025–2026 conflicts, including leadership succession after Ali Khamenei's death and minimal reported defections in the security apparatus. Protests tied to economic strain and prior unrest were contained through arrests and force, while institutional structures such as the Supreme National Security Council and IRGC maintained cohesion under Mojtaba Khamenei. With roughly two weeks remaining before the September 30 resolution date, traders price the near-certain outcome at 99.5% against regime fall, reflecting the absence of coordinated elite fractures, unified opposition networks, or rapid military collapse. Late developments like sudden escalation in external strikes, large-scale security defections, or synchronized nationwide mobilization could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-likelihood within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,291,274結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETThe Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience following the 2025–2026 conflicts, including leadership succession after Ali Khamenei's death and minimal reported defections in the security apparatus. Protests tied to economic strain and prior unrest were contained through arrests and force, while institutional structures such as the Supreme National Security Council and IRGC maintained cohesion under Mojtaba Khamenei. With roughly two weeks remaining before the September 30 resolution date, traders price the near-certain outcome at 99.5% against regime fall, reflecting the absence of coordinated elite fractures, unified opposition networks, or rapid military collapse. Late developments like sudden escalation in external strikes, large-scale security defections, or synchronized nationwide mobilization could still shift probabilities, though these remain low-likelihood within the narrow timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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