Traders assign the Iranian regime only a 0.5% chance of falling by September 30 because the Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience through leadership succession, military conflicts, and domestic unrest without elite defections or security force fractures. Recent assessments highlight the absence of unified opposition leadership or a viable transition plan that could rapidly consolidate power, allowing authorities to manage protests and economic pressures through established control mechanisms. With just days remaining, no scheduled diplomatic, legislative, or electoral event is positioned to trigger immediate collapse. Late-breaking developments such as an unforeseen internal power shift, health crisis among senior figures, or sudden escalation in protests could still alter the outcome, though these remain low-probability in the narrow resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
<1% 機率
$2,266,506 交易量
$2,266,506 交易量
2026-09-30
是
<1% 機率
$2,266,506 交易量
$2,266,506 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign the Iranian regime only a 0.5% chance of falling by September 30 because the Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience through leadership succession, military conflicts, and domestic unrest without elite defections or security force fractures. Recent assessments highlight the absence of unified opposition leadership or a viable transition plan that could rapidly consolidate power, allowing authorities to manage protests and economic pressures through established control mechanisms. With just days remaining, no scheduled diplomatic, legislative, or electoral event is positioned to trigger immediate collapse. Late-breaking developments such as an unforeseen internal power shift, health crisis among senior figures, or sudden escalation in protests could still alter the outcome, though these remain low-probability in the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$2,266,506結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign the Iranian regime only a 0.5% chance of falling by September 30 because the Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience through leadership succession, military conflicts, and domestic unrest without elite defections or security force fractures. Recent assessments highlight the absence of unified opposition leadership or a viable transition plan that could rapidly consolidate power, allowing authorities to manage protests and economic pressures through established control mechanisms. With just days remaining, no scheduled diplomatic, legislative, or electoral event is positioned to trigger immediate collapse. Late-breaking developments such as an unforeseen internal power shift, health crisis among senior figures, or sudden escalation in protests could still alter the outcome, though these remain low-probability in the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,266,506結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETTraders assign the Iranian regime only a 0.5% chance of falling by September 30 because the Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience through leadership succession, military conflicts, and domestic unrest without elite defections or security force fractures. Recent assessments highlight the absence of unified opposition leadership or a viable transition plan that could rapidly consolidate power, allowing authorities to manage protests and economic pressures through established control mechanisms. With just days remaining, no scheduled diplomatic, legislative, or electoral event is positioned to trigger immediate collapse. Late-breaking developments such as an unforeseen internal power shift, health crisis among senior figures, or sudden escalation in protests could still alter the outcome, though these remain low-probability in the narrow resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions