The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resilience since the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, limited military defections, and suppression of major 2025-2026 protests amid economic strain and conflict. Recent August-September developments, including intermittent strikes, diplomatic outreach via Qatar for war de-escalation, and hardliner consolidation in security roles, show continued institutional control without signs of imminent breakdown. Traders assign 99.6% probability to regime survival through September 30 because the short timeline leaves little room for the coordinated internal collapse or mass defections historically required for such outcomes. Low-probability shifts could still arise from sudden elite fractures or escalated unrest, though none are evident in current reporting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
<1% 機率
$2,418,632 交易量
$2,418,632 交易量
2026-09-30
是
<1% 機率
$2,418,632 交易量
$2,418,632 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resilience since the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, limited military defections, and suppression of major 2025-2026 protests amid economic strain and conflict. Recent August-September developments, including intermittent strikes, diplomatic outreach via Qatar for war de-escalation, and hardliner consolidation in security roles, show continued institutional control without signs of imminent breakdown. Traders assign 99.6% probability to regime survival through September 30 because the short timeline leaves little room for the coordinated internal collapse or mass defections historically required for such outcomes. Low-probability shifts could still arise from sudden elite fractures or escalated unrest, though none are evident in current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$2,418,632結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resilience since the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, limited military defections, and suppression of major 2025-2026 protests amid economic strain and conflict. Recent August-September developments, including intermittent strikes, diplomatic outreach via Qatar for war de-escalation, and hardliner consolidation in security roles, show continued institutional control without signs of imminent breakdown. Traders assign 99.6% probability to regime survival through September 30 because the short timeline leaves little room for the coordinated internal collapse or mass defections historically required for such outcomes. Low-probability shifts could still arise from sudden elite fractures or escalated unrest, though none are evident in current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,418,632結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETThe Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resilience since the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, limited military defections, and suppression of major 2025-2026 protests amid economic strain and conflict. Recent August-September developments, including intermittent strikes, diplomatic outreach via Qatar for war de-escalation, and hardliner consolidation in security roles, show continued institutional control without signs of imminent breakdown. Traders assign 99.6% probability to regime survival through September 30 because the short timeline leaves little room for the coordinated internal collapse or mass defections historically required for such outcomes. Low-probability shifts could still arise from sudden elite fractures or escalated unrest, though none are evident in current reporting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions