Houthi advances to within 80 km of Aden—the closest since 2015—combined with renewed ballistic missile strikes on coalition camps in the city on November 11 have elevated near-term entry risks, though government forces and Saudi-led air operations continue to hold key approaches. Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects these developments through low implied probabilities for immediate resolution, consistent with historical base rates where external coalition support has repeatedly stalled similar offensives. Escalation around the Bab el-Mandeb strait and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure add volatility to regional shipping costs and oil logistics, factors that prediction markets price as secondary to on-ground defensive barriers. Key upcoming catalysts include further reported coalition strikes and any shifts in Houthi mobilization toward Taiz or southern fronts before year-end deadlines.