The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through 2026 despite major protests triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded military capabilities. Security forces conducted large-scale crackdowns, including executions and internet blackouts, while Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the succession to preserve institutional continuity. Recent reports from September note simmering discontent over fuel prices, water shortages, and repression but highlight the absence of unified opposition leadership or coordinated networks capable of rapid overthrow. Traders price the regime’s survival through year-end at 93.5% probability for “No,” consistent with its historical ability to suppress unrest via loyal security structures even amid ongoing external pressure and internal fractures.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於伊朗政權會在2027年之前倒臺嗎？
伊朗政權會在2027年之前倒臺嗎？
是
7% 機率
$26,182,275 交易量
$26,182,275 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
$26,182,275 交易量
$26,182,275 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through 2026 despite major protests triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded military capabilities. Security forces conducted large-scale crackdowns, including executions and internet blackouts, while Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the succession to preserve institutional continuity. Recent reports from September note simmering discontent over fuel prices, water shortages, and repression but highlight the absence of unified opposition leadership or coordinated networks capable of rapid overthrow. Traders price the regime’s survival through year-end at 93.5% probability for “No,” consistent with its historical ability to suppress unrest via loyal security structures even amid ongoing external pressure and internal fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$26,182,275結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through 2026 despite major protests triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded military capabilities. Security forces conducted large-scale crackdowns, including executions and internet blackouts, while Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the succession to preserve institutional continuity. Recent reports from September note simmering discontent over fuel prices, water shortages, and repression but highlight the absence of unified opposition leadership or coordinated networks capable of rapid overthrow. Traders price the regime’s survival through year-end at 93.5% probability for “No,” consistent with its historical ability to suppress unrest via loyal security structures even amid ongoing external pressure and internal fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$26,182,275結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETThe Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through 2026 despite major protests triggered by economic collapse, currency devaluation, and U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded military capabilities. Security forces conducted large-scale crackdowns, including executions and internet blackouts, while Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the succession to preserve institutional continuity. Recent reports from September note simmering discontent over fuel prices, water shortages, and repression but highlight the absence of unified opposition leadership or coordinated networks capable of rapid overthrow. Traders price the regime’s survival through year-end at 93.5% probability for “No,” consistent with its historical ability to suppress unrest via loyal security structures even amid ongoing external pressure and internal fractures.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions