The current Iranian regime maintains firm institutional control through its security apparatus and clerical leadership structures, despite recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that have weakened Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's position following his reported death in early 2026. Reza Pahlavi, operating from exile, continues to advocate for a secular democratic transition and position himself as a potential interim figure, yet surveys indicate only about one-third of Iranians strongly back him amid divided opposition factions and preferences for domestic candidates. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have publicly downplayed his prospects in favor of internal leadership. These factors sustain trader consensus that a swift power shift enabling Pahlavi to head the government by the end of 2026 remains improbable, with any change likely requiring prolonged internal mobilization or further escalations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,175,052 交易量
$1,175,052 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,175,052 交易量
$1,175,052 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The current Iranian regime maintains firm institutional control through its security apparatus and clerical leadership structures, despite recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that have weakened Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's position following his reported death in early 2026. Reza Pahlavi, operating from exile, continues to advocate for a secular democratic transition and position himself as a potential interim figure, yet surveys indicate only about one-third of Iranians strongly back him amid divided opposition factions and preferences for domestic candidates. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have publicly downplayed his prospects in favor of internal leadership. These factors sustain trader consensus that a swift power shift enabling Pahlavi to head the government by the end of 2026 remains improbable, with any change likely requiring prolonged internal mobilization or further escalations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$1,175,052結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The current Iranian regime maintains firm institutional control through its security apparatus and clerical leadership structures, despite recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that have weakened Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's position following his reported death in early 2026. Reza Pahlavi, operating from exile, continues to advocate for a secular democratic transition and position himself as a potential interim figure, yet surveys indicate only about one-third of Iranians strongly back him amid divided opposition factions and preferences for domestic candidates. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have publicly downplayed his prospects in favor of internal leadership. These factors sustain trader consensus that a swift power shift enabling Pahlavi to head the government by the end of 2026 remains improbable, with any change likely requiring prolonged internal mobilization or further escalations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,175,052結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The current Iranian regime maintains firm institutional control through its security apparatus and clerical leadership structures, despite recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that have weakened Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's position following his reported death in early 2026. Reza Pahlavi, operating from exile, continues to advocate for a secular democratic transition and position himself as a potential interim figure, yet surveys indicate only about one-third of Iranians strongly back him amid divided opposition factions and preferences for domestic candidates. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have publicly downplayed his prospects in favor of internal leadership. These factors sustain trader consensus that a swift power shift enabling Pahlavi to head the government by the end of 2026 remains improbable, with any change likely requiring prolonged internal mobilization or further escalations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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