Reza Pahlavi’s long-term exile in the United States, combined with the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience after early 2026 conflict and the June ceasefire, anchors trader expectations that he will not exercise effective governing authority by year-end. The regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s reported death and has shown no institutional fracture sufficient to transfer control of the military, ministries, or executive functions to an opposition figure abroad. Recent statements from the Trump administration, including Vice President Vance’s explicit rejection of installing Pahlavi, further reduce prospects for external backing that could accelerate a transition. While Pahlavi continues to highlight internal defections and opposition networks in September 2026 speeches, these have not produced verifiable shifts in domestic power structures. Only an abrupt, large-scale regime collapse with rapid recognition of Pahlavi as interim authority could still alter the outcome before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$11,766,684 交易量
$11,766,684 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 機率
$11,766,684 交易量
$11,766,684 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi’s long-term exile in the United States, combined with the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience after early 2026 conflict and the June ceasefire, anchors trader expectations that he will not exercise effective governing authority by year-end. The regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s reported death and has shown no institutional fracture sufficient to transfer control of the military, ministries, or executive functions to an opposition figure abroad. Recent statements from the Trump administration, including Vice President Vance’s explicit rejection of installing Pahlavi, further reduce prospects for external backing that could accelerate a transition. While Pahlavi continues to highlight internal defections and opposition networks in September 2026 speeches, these have not produced verifiable shifts in domestic power structures. Only an abrupt, large-scale regime collapse with rapid recognition of Pahlavi as interim authority could still alter the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$11,766,684結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi’s long-term exile in the United States, combined with the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience after early 2026 conflict and the June ceasefire, anchors trader expectations that he will not exercise effective governing authority by year-end. The regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s reported death and has shown no institutional fracture sufficient to transfer control of the military, ministries, or executive functions to an opposition figure abroad. Recent statements from the Trump administration, including Vice President Vance’s explicit rejection of installing Pahlavi, further reduce prospects for external backing that could accelerate a transition. While Pahlavi continues to highlight internal defections and opposition networks in September 2026 speeches, these have not produced verifiable shifts in domestic power structures. Only an abrupt, large-scale regime collapse with rapid recognition of Pahlavi as interim authority could still alter the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$11,766,684結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETReza Pahlavi’s long-term exile in the United States, combined with the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience after early 2026 conflict and the June ceasefire, anchors trader expectations that he will not exercise effective governing authority by year-end. The regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s reported death and has shown no institutional fracture sufficient to transfer control of the military, ministries, or executive functions to an opposition figure abroad. Recent statements from the Trump administration, including Vice President Vance’s explicit rejection of installing Pahlavi, further reduce prospects for external backing that could accelerate a transition. While Pahlavi continues to highlight internal defections and opposition networks in September 2026 speeches, these have not produced verifiable shifts in domestic power structures. Only an abrupt, large-scale regime collapse with rapid recognition of Pahlavi as interim authority could still alter the outcome before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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