Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered ceasefire on April 16, 2026, which was extended by 45 days on May 15 to allow continued diplomatic talks in Washington. Israeli forces have maintained positions in a security buffer zone inside southern Lebanon while conducting strikes on Hezbollah targets. Negotiations focus on full Israeli withdrawal, Lebanese Armed Forces redeployment south of the Litani River, border demarcation, prisoner exchanges, and Hezbollah disarmament under frameworks like UN resolutions 1701 and 1559. Hezbollah leaders have demanded complete Israeli pullback before discussing weapons, and Israeli officials have linked any exit to verified security guarantees. Further meetings are scheduled for early June, with traders monitoring whether these steps produce verifiable progress toward withdrawal within the current truce window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$1,519,632 交易量
2026-06-30
5月31日
2%
6月30日
8%
$1,519,632 交易量
5月31日
$1,228,468 交易量
2%
6月30日
$216,159 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered ceasefire on April 16, 2026, which was extended by 45 days on May 15 to allow continued diplomatic talks in Washington. Israeli forces have maintained positions in a security buffer zone inside southern Lebanon while conducting strikes on Hezbollah targets. Negotiations focus on full Israeli withdrawal, Lebanese Armed Forces redeployment south of the Litani River, border demarcation, prisoner exchanges, and Hezbollah disarmament under frameworks like UN resolutions 1701 and 1559. Hezbollah leaders have demanded complete Israeli pullback before discussing weapons, and Israeli officials have linked any exit to verified security guarantees. Further meetings are scheduled for early June, with traders monitoring whether these steps produce verifiable progress toward withdrawal within the current truce window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$1,519,632結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered ceasefire on April 16, 2026, which was extended by 45 days on May 15 to allow continued diplomatic talks in Washington. Israeli forces have maintained positions in a security buffer zone inside southern Lebanon while conducting strikes on Hezbollah targets. Negotiations focus on full Israeli withdrawal, Lebanese Armed Forces redeployment south of the Litani River, border demarcation, prisoner exchanges, and Hezbollah disarmament under frameworks like UN resolutions 1701 and 1559. Hezbollah leaders have demanded complete Israeli pullback before discussing weapons, and Israeli officials have linked any exit to verified security guarantees. Further meetings are scheduled for early June, with traders monitoring whether these steps produce verifiable progress toward withdrawal within the current truce window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$1,519,632結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered ceasefire on April 16, 2026, which was extended by 45 days on May 15 to allow continued diplomatic talks in Washington. Israeli forces have maintained positions in a security buffer zone inside southern Lebanon while conducting strikes on Hezbollah targets. Negotiations focus on full Israeli withdrawal, Lebanese Armed Forces redeployment south of the Litani River, border demarcation, prisoner exchanges, and Hezbollah disarmament under frameworks like UN resolutions 1701 and 1559. Hezbollah leaders have demanded complete Israeli pullback before discussing weapons, and Israeli officials have linked any exit to verified security guarantees. Further meetings are scheduled for early June, with traders monitoring whether these steps produce verifiable progress toward withdrawal within the current truce window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions