Canada's government under Prime Minister Mark Carney has shown no indication of declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, despite a citizen petition exceeding 200,000 signatures citing his public statements on tariffs, annexation rhetoric, and bilateral interference. Ottawa continues prioritizing trade negotiations, including USMCA renewal and border security talks, while maintaining standard diplomatic channels with Washington. Historical precedent favors restraint in Canada-U.S. relations, and analysts note the petition's parliamentary presentation this fall is unlikely to shift executive policy. Trader consensus reflects these structural incentives against escalation. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sudden tariff impositions triggering a diplomatic rupture or a major shift in Carney's approach ahead of the December 31 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Canada's government under Prime Minister Mark Carney has shown no indication of declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, despite a citizen petition exceeding 200,000 signatures citing his public statements on tariffs, annexation rhetoric, and bilateral interference. Ottawa continues prioritizing trade negotiations, including USMCA renewal and border security talks, while maintaining standard diplomatic channels with Washington. Historical precedent favors restraint in Canada-U.S. relations, and analysts note the petition's parliamentary presentation this fall is unlikely to shift executive policy. Trader consensus reflects these structural incentives against escalation. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sudden tariff impositions triggering a diplomatic rupture or a major shift in Carney's approach ahead of the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ET
交易量
$96結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Canada's government under Prime Minister Mark Carney has shown no indication of declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, despite a citizen petition exceeding 200,000 signatures citing his public statements on tariffs, annexation rhetoric, and bilateral interference. Ottawa continues prioritizing trade negotiations, including USMCA renewal and border security talks, while maintaining standard diplomatic channels with Washington. Historical precedent favors restraint in Canada-U.S. relations, and analysts note the petition's parliamentary presentation this fall is unlikely to shift executive policy. Trader consensus reflects these structural incentives against escalation. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sudden tariff impositions triggering a diplomatic rupture or a major shift in Carney's approach ahead of the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$96結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's government under Prime Minister Mark Carney has shown no indication of declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, despite a citizen petition exceeding 200,000 signatures citing his public statements on tariffs, annexation rhetoric, and bilateral interference. Ottawa continues prioritizing trade negotiations, including USMCA renewal and border security talks, while maintaining standard diplomatic channels with Washington. Historical precedent favors restraint in Canada-U.S. relations, and analysts note the petition's parliamentary presentation this fall is unlikely to shift executive policy. Trader consensus reflects these structural incentives against escalation. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sudden tariff impositions triggering a diplomatic rupture or a major shift in Carney's approach ahead of the December 31 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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