**Incumbent KMT Mayor Chiang Wan-an holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the November 28, 2026 Taipei mayoral election, reflecting his incumbency, stronger cross-party support among KMT and TPP voters, and higher perceived win probability in recent surveys.** Polls from September and early October 2026 show a tight race, with Chiang at roughly 41-44% and DPP challenger Puma Shen at 36-40.5%, often within the margin of error, though Chiang consistently leads on suitability ratings, approval (around 52%), and voter expectations of victory (57-58% vs. 21%). Shen draws stronger backing from younger voters and DPP supporters but faces higher rejection rates tied to party perceptions. Minor candidates such as Kuo Hsi register negligible support. Campaign focus has centered on education policy, school lunches, drug enforcement, and a recent police raid at a gay bar that prompted Chiang to order a review while reaffirming Taipei’s inclusivity. The race remains competitive in a traditionally pan-Blue city, with roughly seven weeks until voting.