Recent polling averages place the Partido Popular (PP) first at around 31% and Vox at 19%, with the two parties projected to win 197–205 seats in the 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat majority threshold. This positioning stems from Vox doubling its 2023 seat total amid voter shifts on immigration and regional issues, while the PSOE trails at roughly 26% and its potential left-wing partners remain fragmented after the Broad Front alliance underperformed. The PP and Vox already govern together in several regions and have coordinated Senate candidacies ahead of the November 29 vote, reinforcing expectations of post-election cooperation. Simulations across multiple aggregators assign the PP-Vox bloc a majority in 98–99% of outcomes.