Recent polling averages place the incumbent National-led right bloc narrowly ahead of the Labour-led left in projected seats ahead of the 7 November 2026 election, though individual party support remains closely contested between National and Labour. The current three-party coalition's outright majority prospects in simulations sit around 40 percent, supporting its position as the leading outcome in trader pricing. National has explicitly ruled out working with The Opportunities Party, which polling shows hovering near the 5 percent threshold and could otherwise tilt toward Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori. Recent surveys indicate modest volatility in smaller-party support, with NZ First and ACT providing the margin that keeps the right bloc competitive while left-leaning combinations without additional partners fall short of the 62-seat majority needed under MMP.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於National + ACT + NZF 44%
Labour + Green 19.3%
Labour + Green + Maori 19%
Other 6.3%
$55,424 交易量
$55,424 交易量
2026-11-06
Labour
<1%
Labour + Green
19%
Labour + Maori
1%
Labour + NZF
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori
19%
Labour + Green + NZF
1%
Labour + Maori + NZF
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
1%
National
<1%
National + ACT
1%
National + NZF
3%
National + Maori
<1%
National + ACT + NZF
44%
National + ACT + Maori
<1%
National + NZF + Maori
<1%
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
<1%
National + Labour
1%
Other
6%
National + ACT + NZF 44%
Labour + Green 19.3%
Labour + Green + Maori 19%
Other 6.3%
$55,424 交易量
$55,424 交易量
2026-11-06
Labour
$1,524 交易量
<1%
Labour + Green
$5,001 交易量
19%
Labour + Maori
$1,479 交易量
1%
Labour + NZF
$1,436 交易量
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori
$5,269 交易量
19%
Labour + Green + NZF
$1,719 交易量
1%
Labour + Maori + NZF
$1,438 交易量
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
$1,999 交易量
1%
National
$1,346 交易量
<1%
National + ACT
$2,230 交易量
1%
National + NZF
$1,841 交易量
3%
National + Maori
$1,421 交易量
<1%
National + ACT + NZF
$10,149 交易量
44%
National + ACT + Maori
$1,431 交易量
<1%
National + NZF + Maori
$1,345 交易量
<1%
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
$1,527 交易量
<1%
National + Labour
$1,472 交易量
1%
Other
$12,796 交易量
6%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.Recent polling averages place the incumbent National-led right bloc narrowly ahead of the Labour-led left in projected seats ahead of the 7 November 2026 election, though individual party support remains closely contested between National and Labour. The current three-party coalition's outright majority prospects in simulations sit around 40 percent, supporting its position as the leading outcome in trader pricing. National has explicitly ruled out working with The Opportunities Party, which polling shows hovering near the 5 percent threshold and could otherwise tilt toward Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori. Recent surveys indicate modest volatility in smaller-party support, with NZ First and ACT providing the margin that keeps the right bloc competitive while left-leaning combinations without additional partners fall short of the 62-seat majority needed under MMP.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
交易量
$55,424結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ETA general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.Recent polling averages place the incumbent National-led right bloc narrowly ahead of the Labour-led left in projected seats ahead of the 7 November 2026 election, though individual party support remains closely contested between National and Labour. The current three-party coalition's outright majority prospects in simulations sit around 40 percent, supporting its position as the leading outcome in trader pricing. National has explicitly ruled out working with The Opportunities Party, which polling shows hovering near the 5 percent threshold and could otherwise tilt toward Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori. Recent surveys indicate modest volatility in smaller-party support, with NZ First and ACT providing the margin that keeps the right bloc competitive while left-leaning combinations without additional partners fall short of the 62-seat majority needed under MMP.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
交易量
$55,424結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ETRecent polling averages place the incumbent National-led right bloc narrowly ahead of the Labour-led left in projected seats ahead of the 7 November 2026 election, though individual party support remains closely contested between National and Labour. The current three-party coalition's outright majority prospects in simulations sit around 40 percent, supporting its position as the leading outcome in trader pricing. National has explicitly ruled out working with The Opportunities Party, which polling shows hovering near the 5 percent threshold and could otherwise tilt toward Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori. Recent surveys indicate modest volatility in smaller-party support, with NZ First and ACT providing the margin that keeps the right bloc competitive while left-leaning combinations without additional partners fall short of the 62-seat majority needed under MMP.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions