Marine Le Pen leads the market at 47.3% due to consistent first-round polling averages near 33-36% and broad support across recent surveys, reflecting voter consolidation on the right amid France’s polarized landscape. David Lisnard’s rise to 15.9% aligns with his gains to 7-12% in November polls after declaring for Nouvelle Énergie, drawing from center-right voters in a fragmented field. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s 13.5% share tracks his 17-20% polling strength and momentum from protests, positioning him as the most frequent projected runoff opponent despite heavy second-round deficits. Centrist infighting and multiple right-leaning candidacies have suppressed figures such as Édouard Philippe, reinforcing trader pricing that favors Le Pen while leaving room for shifts from late primary dynamics or turnout changes ahead of the 2027 vote.