下屆法國總統選舉

下屆法國總統選舉 — 討論

nicoco89 · 2025-11-13T23:10:18.574Z

關於下屆法國總統選舉的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

瑪琳·勒龐 36.0%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普 25%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄 13%

大衛·利斯納爾 7.8%

$134,985,737 交易量

2027-04-29

瑪琳·勒龐

$2,499,577 交易量

36%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普

$1,666,946 交易量

25%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄

$1,518,412 交易量

13%

大衛·利斯納爾

$2,306,537 交易量

弗朗索瓦·奧朗德

$1,901,537 交易量

Gabriel Attal

$2,322,875 交易量

喬丹·巴爾德拉

$2,167,945 交易量

拉斐爾·格呂克斯曼

$1,810,560 交易量

布魯諾·赫泰約

$2,294,819 交易量

埃里克·澤穆爾

$2,482,540 交易量

莎拉·克納福

$2,117,890 交易量

多米尼克·德維爾潘

$1,911,527 交易量

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努

$1,743,308 交易量

奧利維耶·福爾

$5,891,497 交易量

<1%

克蕾芙絲·蓋特

$4,175,189 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·巴魯安

$1,137,757 交易量

<1%

澤維耶·貝特朗

$5,979,786 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·魯芬

$3,738,569 交易量

<1%

瑪琳·通德列

$4,191,139 交易量

<1%

塞格琳·羅亞爾

$6,395,569 交易量

<1%

讓·卡斯泰

$1,729,931 交易量

<1%

卡里姆·布阿姆拉內

$905,703 交易量

<1%

洛朗·瓦奎茲

$3,683,735 交易量

<1%

法比恩·魯塞爾

$4,244,282 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·阿斯利諾

$5,755,672 交易量

<1%

克萊芙蒂娜·奧坦

$4,990,060 交易量

<1%

尼古拉·杜邦-艾尼昂

$4,731,111 交易量

<1%

米歇爾·巴尼耶

$5,253,712 交易量

<1%

瓦萊麗·佩克雷斯

$4,066,879 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·貝魯

$5,939,544 交易量

<1%

伊莉莎白·博爾內

$5,446,132 交易量

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$5,701,437 交易量

<1%

熱拉爾·達爾馬寧

$2,086,448 交易量

<1%

卡羅爾·德爾加

$4,742,192 交易量

<1%

貝爾納·卡澤納夫

$2,337,328 交易量

<1%

曼努埃爾·邦帕爾

$4,826,241 交易量

<1%

馬蒂爾德·帕諾

$6,420,677 交易量

<1%

胡安·布蘭科

$2,260,444 交易量

<1%

盧西·卡斯特

$418,274 交易量

<1%

雅尼克·雅多

$750,449 交易量

<1%

瑪麗安·馬雷夏爾

$441,509 交易量

<1%

瑪琳·勒龐 36.0%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普 25%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄 13%

大衛·利斯納爾 7.8%

$134,985,737 交易量

2027-04-29

瑪琳·勒龐

$2,499,577 交易量

36%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普

$1,666,946 交易量

25%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄

$1,518,412 交易量

13%

大衛·利斯納爾

$2,306,537 交易量

弗朗索瓦·奧朗德

$1,901,537 交易量

Gabriel Attal

$2,322,875 交易量

喬丹·巴爾德拉

$2,167,945 交易量

拉斐爾·格呂克斯曼

$1,810,560 交易量

布魯諾·赫泰約

$2,294,819 交易量

埃里克·澤穆爾

$2,482,540 交易量

莎拉·克納福

$2,117,890 交易量

多米尼克·德維爾潘

$1,911,527 交易量

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努

$1,743,308 交易量

奧利維耶·福爾

$5,891,497 交易量

<1%

克蕾芙絲·蓋特

$4,175,189 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·巴魯安

$1,137,757 交易量

<1%

澤維耶·貝特朗

$5,979,786 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·魯芬

$3,738,569 交易量

<1%

瑪琳·通德列

$4,191,139 交易量

<1%

塞格琳·羅亞爾

$6,395,569 交易量

<1%

讓·卡斯泰

$1,729,931 交易量

<1%

卡里姆·布阿姆拉內

$905,703 交易量

<1%

洛朗·瓦奎茲

$3,683,735 交易量

<1%

法比恩·魯塞爾

$4,244,282 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·阿斯利諾

$5,755,672 交易量

<1%

克萊芙蒂娜·奧坦

$4,990,060 交易量

<1%

尼古拉·杜邦-艾尼昂

$4,731,111 交易量

<1%

米歇爾·巴尼耶

$5,253,712 交易量

<1%

瓦萊麗·佩克雷斯

$4,066,879 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·貝魯

$5,939,544 交易量

<1%

伊莉莎白·博爾內

$5,446,132 交易量

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$5,701,437 交易量

<1%

熱拉爾·達爾馬寧

$2,086,448 交易量

<1%

卡羅爾·德爾加

$4,742,192 交易量

<1%

貝爾納·卡澤納夫

$2,337,328 交易量

<1%

曼努埃爾·邦帕爾

$4,826,241 交易量

<1%

馬蒂爾德·帕諾

$6,420,677 交易量

<1%

胡安·布蘭科

$2,260,444 交易量

<1%

盧西·卡斯特

$418,274 交易量

<1%

雅尼克·雅多

$750,449 交易量

<1%

瑪麗安·馬雷夏爾

$441,509 交易量

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

交易量

$134,985,737

結束日期

2027-04-30

市場開放時間

Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

交易量

$134,985,737

結束日期

2027-04-30

市場開放時間

Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

Frequently Asked Questions

"下屆法國總統選舉" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 41+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "瑪琳·勒龐" at 36%, followed by "埃杜阿爾·菲利普" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "下屆法國總統選舉" has generated $135 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "下屆法國總統選舉," browse the 41+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "下屆法國總統選舉" is "瑪琳·勒龐" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "埃杜阿爾·菲利普" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "下屆法國總統選舉" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "下屆法國總統選舉." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $135 million traded on “下屆法國總統選舉,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "下屆法國總統選舉," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 36¢ for "瑪琳·勒龐" in the "下屆法國總統選舉" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 36% chance that "瑪琳·勒龐" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 36¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 64¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "下屆法國總統選舉" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 29, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "下屆法國總統選舉" market has an active community of 758 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "下屆法國總統選舉." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

下屆法國總統選舉

下屆法國總統選舉

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "下屆法國總統選舉" prediction market?

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What does a price of 36¢ for "瑪琳·勒龐" mean?

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