United Russia's commanding 95% implied probability in the State Duma election market reflects its entrenched supermajority—currently holding 324 of 450 seats—and structural advantages including state media dominance, administrative resource control, and opposition suppression ahead of the September 18–20, 2026 vote. Recent developments, such as United Russia's April primaries mobilizing public-sector turnout targets exceeding 10% and Kremlin directives for parliamentary parties to stage managed debates, reinforce trader consensus on its path to most seats via proportional representation and single-mandate districts. While polls indicate some erosion from economic pressures like inflation, historical precedents (e.g., 49.8% party-list vote in 2021) and lack of viable challengers like KPRF or LDPR sustain this positioning. Realistic shifts would require late-breaking scandals, war-related backlash, or procedural disruptions, though institutional barriers make these improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於統一俄羅斯（ER） 95.0%
新人物黨（NL） 2.9%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF） 1.2%
公正俄羅斯－為了真理黨（SRZP） <1%
$1,327,838 交易量
$1,327,838 交易量
2026-09-30
統一俄羅斯（ER）
95%
新人物黨（NL）
3%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF）
1%
公正俄羅斯－為了真理黨（SRZP）
1%
俄羅斯自由民主黨（LDPR）
<1%
羅迪納
<1%
公民平台（GP）
<1%
統一俄羅斯（ER） 95.0%
新人物黨（NL） 2.9%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF） 1.2%
公正俄羅斯－為了真理黨（SRZP） <1%
$1,327,838 交易量
$1,327,838 交易量
2026-09-30
統一俄羅斯（ER）
$513,245 交易量
95%
新人物黨（NL）
$79,124 交易量
3%
俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（KPRF）
$101,272 交易量
1%
公正俄羅斯－為了真理黨（SRZP）
$228,134 交易量
1%
俄羅斯自由民主黨（LDPR）
$78,666 交易量
<1%
羅迪納
$219,446 交易量
<1%
公民平台（GP）
$107,952 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 95% implied probability in the State Duma election market reflects its entrenched supermajority—currently holding 324 of 450 seats—and structural advantages including state media dominance, administrative resource control, and opposition suppression ahead of the September 18–20, 2026 vote. Recent developments, such as United Russia's April primaries mobilizing public-sector turnout targets exceeding 10% and Kremlin directives for parliamentary parties to stage managed debates, reinforce trader consensus on its path to most seats via proportional representation and single-mandate districts. While polls indicate some erosion from economic pressures like inflation, historical precedents (e.g., 49.8% party-list vote in 2021) and lack of viable challengers like KPRF or LDPR sustain this positioning. Realistic shifts would require late-breaking scandals, war-related backlash, or procedural disruptions, though institutional barriers make these improbable.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市場開放時間： Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
交易量
$1,327,838結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 95% implied probability in the State Duma election market reflects its entrenched supermajority—currently holding 324 of 450 seats—and structural advantages including state media dominance, administrative resource control, and opposition suppression ahead of the September 18–20, 2026 vote. Recent developments, such as United Russia's April primaries mobilizing public-sector turnout targets exceeding 10% and Kremlin directives for parliamentary parties to stage managed debates, reinforce trader consensus on its path to most seats via proportional representation and single-mandate districts. While polls indicate some erosion from economic pressures like inflation, historical precedents (e.g., 49.8% party-list vote in 2021) and lack of viable challengers like KPRF or LDPR sustain this positioning. Realistic shifts would require late-breaking scandals, war-related backlash, or procedural disruptions, though institutional barriers make these improbable.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$1,327,838結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's commanding 95% implied probability in the State Duma election market reflects its entrenched supermajority—currently holding 324 of 450 seats—and structural advantages including state media dominance, administrative resource control, and opposition suppression ahead of the September 18–20, 2026 vote. Recent developments, such as United Russia's April primaries mobilizing public-sector turnout targets exceeding 10% and Kremlin directives for parliamentary parties to stage managed debates, reinforce trader consensus on its path to most seats via proportional representation and single-mandate districts. While polls indicate some erosion from economic pressures like inflation, historical precedents (e.g., 49.8% party-list vote in 2021) and lack of viable challengers like KPRF or LDPR sustain this positioning. Realistic shifts would require late-breaking scandals, war-related backlash, or procedural disruptions, though institutional barriers make these improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions