**Trader consensus in this Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty over first-round vote leadership in Maranhão, with leading contracts clustered tightly between roughly 43% and 50%.** National polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead overall at 38–42%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 28–35%, while other declared candidates remain in single digits. Maranhão’s Northeast profile, where PT-aligned voters have historically consolidated, keeps Lula’s local positioning competitive, yet the broader field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names—fragments support. The official campaign window opened August 15 with registration closed, leaving limited time for regional swings before the October 4 vote. No single recent event or endorsement has produced clear separation in state-level indicators, sustaining the narrow price range across contenders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Lula 85%
Rui Costa Pimenta 48%
Zema 47%
Escritor Augusto Cury 42%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Lula
85%
Rui Costa Pimenta
48%
Zema
47%
Escritor Augusto Cury
42%
Ronaldo Caiado
41%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
40%
Edmilson Costa
24%
Renan Santos
24%
Samara
24%
Flavio Bolsonaro
23%
Hertz Dias
23%
Clariana Barao
21%
Pablo Marçal
15%
Lula 85%
Rui Costa Pimenta 48%
Zema 47%
Escritor Augusto Cury 42%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Lula
$0 交易量
85%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$0 交易量
48%
Zema
$0 交易量
47%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$0 交易量
42%
Ronaldo Caiado
$0 交易量
41%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$0 交易量
40%
Edmilson Costa
$0 交易量
24%
Renan Santos
$0 交易量
24%
Samara
$0 交易量
24%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$0 交易量
23%
Hertz Dias
$0 交易量
23%
Clariana Barao
$0 交易量
21%
Pablo Marçal
$0 交易量
15%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Trader consensus in this Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty over first-round vote leadership in Maranhão, with leading contracts clustered tightly between roughly 43% and 50%.** National polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead overall at 38–42%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 28–35%, while other declared candidates remain in single digits. Maranhão’s Northeast profile, where PT-aligned voters have historically consolidated, keeps Lula’s local positioning competitive, yet the broader field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names—fragments support. The official campaign window opened August 15 with registration closed, leaving limited time for regional swings before the October 4 vote. No single recent event or endorsement has produced clear separation in state-level indicators, sustaining the narrow price range across contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Trader consensus in this Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty over first-round vote leadership in Maranhão, with leading contracts clustered tightly between roughly 43% and 50%.** National polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead overall at 38–42%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 28–35%, while other declared candidates remain in single digits. Maranhão’s Northeast profile, where PT-aligned voters have historically consolidated, keeps Lula’s local positioning competitive, yet the broader field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names—fragments support. The official campaign window opened August 15 with registration closed, leaving limited time for regional swings before the October 4 vote. No single recent event or endorsement has produced clear separation in state-level indicators, sustaining the narrow price range across contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in this Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty over first-round vote leadership in Maranhão, with leading contracts clustered tightly between roughly 43% and 50%.** National polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead overall at 38–42%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 28–35%, while other declared candidates remain in single digits. Maranhão’s Northeast profile, where PT-aligned voters have historically consolidated, keeps Lula’s local positioning competitive, yet the broader field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names—fragments support. The official campaign window opened August 15 with registration closed, leaving limited time for regional swings before the October 4 vote. No single recent event or endorsement has produced clear separation in state-level indicators, sustaining the narrow price range across contenders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions