Russia’s liberal Yabloko party, the sole registered force openly campaigning on an anti-war platform ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, faces structural and administrative barriers that keep its prospects of clearing the five-percent proportional threshold low. The party secured Central Election Commission registration in late July after nominating a federal list, yet multiple candidates—including former leader Nikolai Rybakov—have been disqualified through court rulings tied to extremism provisions enacted after 2022. State pollster VCIOM places Yabloko in the low single digits, consistent with its 1.34 percent share in 2021 and similar results in prior cycles. In a managed system dominated by United Russia and limited independent campaigning, these constraints reinforce trader expectations reflected in the 92 percent probability assigned to “No.”