Darline Graham Nordone, appointed by Governor Henry McMaster after her brother Lindsey Graham's July 2026 death, secured the top spot in the August 11 Republican primary with roughly 33% of the vote. This produced a first-round margin near 9 points over runner-up Ralph Norman amid a crowded field that included Russell Fry and Mark Sanford. Her edge stemmed from name recognition, the governor's appointment, and Donald Trump's endorsement, which consolidated support among Republican primary voters ahead of the August 25 runoff. Traders assigned near-certain probability to the 5–10% band once partial returns and precinct data confirmed the gap. A late surge by Norman or Fry, unusually high turnout in specific congressional districts, or a recount altering certified totals remain the only realistic paths to a different margin band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Graham Nordone 5–10% 100.0%
Graham Nordone 20%+ <1%
Graham Nordone 15–20% <1%
Graham Nordone 10–15% <1%
$8,240 交易量
$8,240 交易量
2026-08-11
Graham Nordone 20%+
No
Graham Nordone 15–20%
No
Graham Nordone 10–15%
No
Graham Nordone 5–10%
Yes
Graham Nordone <5%
No
Norman <5%
No
Norman 5%+
No
Fry <5%
No
Fry 5%+
No
Sanford wins
No
Graham Nordone 5–10% 100.0%
Graham Nordone 20%+ <1%
Graham Nordone 15–20% <1%
Graham Nordone 10–15% <1%
$8,240 交易量
$8,240 交易量
2026-08-11
Graham Nordone 20%+
$353 交易量
No
Graham Nordone 15–20%
$324 交易量
No
Graham Nordone 10–15%
$897 交易量
No
Graham Nordone 5–10%
$1,643 交易量
Yes
Graham Nordone <5%
$548 交易量
No
Norman <5%
$2,059 交易量
No
Norman 5%+
$752 交易量
No
Fry <5%
$544 交易量
No
Fry 5%+
$876 交易量
No
Sanford wins
$245 交易量
No
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darline Graham Nordone, appointed by Governor Henry McMaster after her brother Lindsey Graham's July 2026 death, secured the top spot in the August 11 Republican primary with roughly 33% of the vote. This produced a first-round margin near 9 points over runner-up Ralph Norman amid a crowded field that included Russell Fry and Mark Sanford. Her edge stemmed from name recognition, the governor's appointment, and Donald Trump's endorsement, which consolidated support among Republican primary voters ahead of the August 25 runoff. Traders assigned near-certain probability to the 5–10% band once partial returns and precinct data confirmed the gap. A late surge by Norman or Fry, unusually high turnout in specific congressional districts, or a recount altering certified totals remain the only realistic paths to a different margin band.
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
交易量
$8,240結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darline Graham Nordone, appointed by Governor Henry McMaster after her brother Lindsey Graham's July 2026 death, secured the top spot in the August 11 Republican primary with roughly 33% of the vote. This produced a first-round margin near 9 points over runner-up Ralph Norman amid a crowded field that included Russell Fry and Mark Sanford. Her edge stemmed from name recognition, the governor's appointment, and Donald Trump's endorsement, which consolidated support among Republican primary voters ahead of the August 25 runoff. Traders assigned near-certain probability to the 5–10% band once partial returns and precinct data confirmed the gap. A late surge by Norman or Fry, unusually high turnout in specific congressional districts, or a recount altering certified totals remain the only realistic paths to a different margin band.
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$8,240結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Darline Graham Nordone, appointed by Governor Henry McMaster after her brother Lindsey Graham's July 2026 death, secured the top spot in the August 11 Republican primary with roughly 33% of the vote. This produced a first-round margin near 9 points over runner-up Ralph Norman amid a crowded field that included Russell Fry and Mark Sanford. Her edge stemmed from name recognition, the governor's appointment, and Donald Trump's endorsement, which consolidated support among Republican primary voters ahead of the August 25 runoff. Traders assigned near-certain probability to the 5–10% band once partial returns and precinct data confirmed the gap. A late surge by Norman or Fry, unusually high turnout in specific congressional districts, or a recount altering certified totals remain the only realistic paths to a different margin band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions