Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader assessments for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote due to consistent polling as the leading challenger to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent surveys from Quaest and others place Lula in the low-to-mid 40s and Flávio in the mid-to-high 30s, with all other candidates in single digits. Right-wing support has consolidated behind the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, despite earlier campaign distractions such as family tensions that later reconciled. Lower-polling figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos show no sustained momentum to overtake him. The first-round structure and limited time before voting reinforce expectations that the two frontrunners will advance, aligning with the current market pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於弗拉維奧·波索納羅 85%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 7.1%
雷南·桑托斯 5.6%
羅納爾多·卡亞多 <1%
$4,839,738 交易量
$4,839,738 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·波索納羅
85%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦
7%
雷南·桑托斯
6%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
1%
卡米洛·桑塔納
<1%
費爾南多·哈達
<1%
米歇爾·波索納羅
<1%
羅梅烏·澤馬
<1%
愛德華多·波索納羅
<1%
奧爾多·雷貝洛
<1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
雅伊爾·博爾索納羅
<1%
哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
愛德華多·萊特
<1%
赫爾德·巴爾巴洛
<1%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
<1%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 85%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 7.1%
雷南·桑托斯 5.6%
羅納爾多·卡亞多 <1%
$4,839,738 交易量
$4,839,738 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·波索納羅
$294,829 交易量
85%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦
$264,684 交易量
7%
雷南·桑托斯
$1,115,581 交易量
6%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
$363,525 交易量
1%
卡米洛·桑塔納
$126,390 交易量
<1%
費爾南多·哈達
$712,252 交易量
<1%
米歇爾·波索納羅
$144,444 交易量
<1%
羅梅烏·澤馬
$313,083 交易量
<1%
愛德華多·波索納羅
$109,545 交易量
<1%
奧爾多·雷貝洛
$70,404 交易量
<1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
$207,342 交易量
<1%
雅伊爾·博爾索納羅
$138,456 交易量
<1%
哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾
$681,366 交易量
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$162,276 交易量
<1%
愛德華多·萊特
$79,085 交易量
<1%
赫爾德·巴爾巴洛
$20,972 交易量
<1%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
$35,504 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader assessments for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote due to consistent polling as the leading challenger to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent surveys from Quaest and others place Lula in the low-to-mid 40s and Flávio in the mid-to-high 30s, with all other candidates in single digits. Right-wing support has consolidated behind the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, despite earlier campaign distractions such as family tensions that later reconciled. Lower-polling figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos show no sustained momentum to overtake him. The first-round structure and limited time before voting reinforce expectations that the two frontrunners will advance, aligning with the current market pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$4,839,738結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader assessments for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote due to consistent polling as the leading challenger to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent surveys from Quaest and others place Lula in the low-to-mid 40s and Flávio in the mid-to-high 30s, with all other candidates in single digits. Right-wing support has consolidated behind the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, despite earlier campaign distractions such as family tensions that later reconciled. Lower-polling figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos show no sustained momentum to overtake him. The first-round structure and limited time before voting reinforce expectations that the two frontrunners will advance, aligning with the current market pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$4,839,738結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader assessments for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote due to consistent polling as the leading challenger to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent surveys from Quaest and others place Lula in the low-to-mid 40s and Flávio in the mid-to-high 30s, with all other candidates in single digits. Right-wing support has consolidated behind the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, despite earlier campaign distractions such as family tensions that later reconciled. Lower-polling figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos show no sustained momentum to overtake him. The first-round structure and limited time before voting reinforce expectations that the two frontrunners will advance, aligning with the current market pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions