Trader consensus on the Banco Central do Brasil’s November 2026 Selic decision remains closely balanced between no change (48.5% implied probability) and a 25 basis point cut (45.5%), reflecting uncertainty over whether the recent easing cycle can extend amid sticky inflation. The Copom has delivered four consecutive 25 bp reductions since early 2026, lowering the benchmark to 14.00% as of the August meeting, yet June CPI held at 4.64% year-over-year—well above the 3% target—with Focus survey expectations for 2026 anchored near 5.3%. Resilient labor markets, firm domestic activity, and energy-price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions continue to support a cautious stance, while moderating monthly price pressures and restrictive real rates could still permit one final calibration step before a pause. Key swing factors include upcoming IPCA releases, fiscal developments, and any shifts in global risk appetite ahead of the November Copom meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於不變 49%
下調25個基點 45%
下調超過50個基點 8%
上調超過50個基點 <1%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
上調超過50個基點
1%
上調25個基點
1%
不變
49%
下調25個基點
45%
下調超過50個基點
8%
不變 49%
下調25個基點 45%
下調超過50個基點 8%
上調超過50個基點 <1%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
上調超過50個基點
$234 交易量
1%
上調25個基點
$249 交易量
1%
不變
$1,664 交易量
49%
下調25個基點
$409 交易量
45%
下調超過50個基點
$398 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Banco Central do Brasil’s November 2026 Selic decision remains closely balanced between no change (48.5% implied probability) and a 25 basis point cut (45.5%), reflecting uncertainty over whether the recent easing cycle can extend amid sticky inflation. The Copom has delivered four consecutive 25 bp reductions since early 2026, lowering the benchmark to 14.00% as of the August meeting, yet June CPI held at 4.64% year-over-year—well above the 3% target—with Focus survey expectations for 2026 anchored near 5.3%. Resilient labor markets, firm domestic activity, and energy-price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions continue to support a cautious stance, while moderating monthly price pressures and restrictive real rates could still permit one final calibration step before a pause. Key swing factors include upcoming IPCA releases, fiscal developments, and any shifts in global risk appetite ahead of the November Copom meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
交易量
$2,954結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Banco Central do Brasil’s November 2026 Selic decision remains closely balanced between no change (48.5% implied probability) and a 25 basis point cut (45.5%), reflecting uncertainty over whether the recent easing cycle can extend amid sticky inflation. The Copom has delivered four consecutive 25 bp reductions since early 2026, lowering the benchmark to 14.00% as of the August meeting, yet June CPI held at 4.64% year-over-year—well above the 3% target—with Focus survey expectations for 2026 anchored near 5.3%. Resilient labor markets, firm domestic activity, and energy-price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions continue to support a cautious stance, while moderating monthly price pressures and restrictive real rates could still permit one final calibration step before a pause. Key swing factors include upcoming IPCA releases, fiscal developments, and any shifts in global risk appetite ahead of the November Copom meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
交易量
$2,954結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Banco Central do Brasil’s November 2026 Selic decision remains closely balanced between no change (48.5% implied probability) and a 25 basis point cut (45.5%), reflecting uncertainty over whether the recent easing cycle can extend amid sticky inflation. The Copom has delivered four consecutive 25 bp reductions since early 2026, lowering the benchmark to 14.00% as of the August meeting, yet June CPI held at 4.64% year-over-year—well above the 3% target—with Focus survey expectations for 2026 anchored near 5.3%. Resilient labor markets, firm domestic activity, and energy-price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions continue to support a cautious stance, while moderating monthly price pressures and restrictive real rates could still permit one final calibration step before a pause. Key swing factors include upcoming IPCA releases, fiscal developments, and any shifts in global risk appetite ahead of the November Copom meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions