Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range underpin the 57.5% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting, with traders assigning a 30.5% chance of a further 25 basis point increase. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% year-over-year and core readings around 3.3-3.4% continue to outpace the 2% goal, while August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, supporting a resilient labor market. The dot plot's median 4.1% funds rate path for both 2026 and 2027 signals limited near-term easing, though incoming CPI, employment reports, and any supply-side developments through year-end could shift the balance toward stability or additional tightening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於No change 57%
加息25個基點 31%
25 bps decrease 11%
50+ bps decrease 3.8%
$83,708 交易量
$83,708 交易量
2027-01-27
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
11%
No change
57%
加息25個基點
31%
超過50個基點的加息
2%
No change 57%
加息25個基點 31%
25 bps decrease 11%
50+ bps decrease 3.8%
$83,708 交易量
$83,708 交易量
2027-01-27
50+ bps decrease
$14,124 交易量
4%
25 bps decrease
$19,608 交易量
11%
No change
$21,742 交易量
57%
加息25個基點
$22,711 交易量
31%
超過50個基點的加息
$5,523 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range underpin the 57.5% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting, with traders assigning a 30.5% chance of a further 25 basis point increase. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% year-over-year and core readings around 3.3-3.4% continue to outpace the 2% goal, while August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, supporting a resilient labor market. The dot plot's median 4.1% funds rate path for both 2026 and 2027 signals limited near-term easing, though incoming CPI, employment reports, and any supply-side developments through year-end could shift the balance toward stability or additional tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
交易量
$83,708結束日期
2027-01-27市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range underpin the 57.5% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting, with traders assigning a 30.5% chance of a further 25 basis point increase. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% year-over-year and core readings around 3.3-3.4% continue to outpace the 2% goal, while August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, supporting a resilient labor market. The dot plot's median 4.1% funds rate path for both 2026 and 2027 signals limited near-term easing, though incoming CPI, employment reports, and any supply-side developments through year-end could shift the balance toward stability or additional tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$83,708結束日期
2027-01-27市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRecent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range underpin the 57.5% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting, with traders assigning a 30.5% chance of a further 25 basis point increase. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% year-over-year and core readings around 3.3-3.4% continue to outpace the 2% goal, while August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, supporting a resilient labor market. The dot plot's median 4.1% funds rate path for both 2026 and 2027 signals limited near-term easing, though incoming CPI, employment reports, and any supply-side developments through year-end could shift the balance toward stability or additional tightening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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