The Justice Department opened a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in January 2026 over his congressional testimony on the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation but closed the inquiry on April 24 with no charges filed or evidence of wrongdoing. Powell transitioned from chair in May 2026 to a Board governor role through 2028, reducing direct exposure. With no active federal cases or new regulatory filings, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-zero implied probability of indictment by late 2026 deadlines, consistent with historical protections for central bank officials and the absence of ongoing subpoenas or grand jury activity. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine economic data releases or any unforeseen executive actions.