The near-certainty among traders that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will not face federal charges by June 30 reflects the absence of any active criminal investigation, indictment, or credible allegations meeting Department of Justice standards for prosecution. No formal proceedings have been announced, and historical patterns show federal charges against sitting central bank officials occur only with clear evidence of misconduct, none of which has surfaced. The short remaining timeline until resolution further reduces the scope for sudden developments such as new filings or referrals. Any shift would require an unprecedented acceleration of legal processes or unforeseen disclosures, outcomes that current institutional signals do not support.