The dropped DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment. Prosecutors closed the inquiry in April 2026 after a federal judge quashed subpoenas for lack of evidence, referring the matter to the Fed’s inspector general with no indictment filed. This outcome reinforced longstanding institutional barriers to charging a sitting or recently departed Fed chair, including prosecutorial discretion, evidentiary thresholds, and bipartisan concern over threats to central-bank independence. No new investigations or referrals have surfaced since Powell’s term ended in May 2026. With December 31, 2026, as the likely resolution horizon, the absence of fresh catalysts or political momentum keeps the market-implied probability of federal charges extremely low.