Recent U.S. inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year alongside revised FOMC projections for 3.6% headline PCE in 2026 have kept the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and created a fragmented outlook for the September, October, and December meetings. With no single rate path exceeding 24% implied probability, trader sentiment reflects competing pressures from sticky core prices, energy-driven supply shocks, and a labor market showing 4.1% unemployment with recent payroll softening. The September 11 CPI release and September 16 FOMC statement will likely serve as the primary near-term catalysts, as markets weigh the balance between maintaining current policy and the median dot-plot signal for at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於升息–暫停–再升息 23%
升息–暫停–暫停 17%
暫停–暫停–升息 16%
加息–加息–暫停 14%
最新
最新
2026-12-09
升息–暫停–再升息
23%
升息–暫停–暫停
17%
連升三次
6%
加息–加息–暫停
14%
暫停–暫停–升息
16%
暫停—暫停—暫停
14%
暫停–升息–升息
8%
暫停–升息–暫停
9%
其他
6%
升息–暫停–再升息 23%
升息–暫停–暫停 17%
暫停–暫停–升息 16%
加息–加息–暫停 14%
最新
最新
2026-12-09
升息–暫停–再升息
$138 交易量
23%
升息–暫停–暫停
$137 交易量
17%
連升三次
$50 交易量
6%
加息–加息–暫停
$68 交易量
14%
暫停–暫停–升息
$106 交易量
16%
暫停—暫停—暫停
$45 交易量
14%
暫停–升息–升息
$35 交易量
8%
暫停–升息–暫停
$52 交易量
9%
其他
$35 交易量
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year alongside revised FOMC projections for 3.6% headline PCE in 2026 have kept the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and created a fragmented outlook for the September, October, and December meetings. With no single rate path exceeding 24% implied probability, trader sentiment reflects competing pressures from sticky core prices, energy-driven supply shocks, and a labor market showing 4.1% unemployment with recent payroll softening. The September 11 CPI release and September 16 FOMC statement will likely serve as the primary near-term catalysts, as markets weigh the balance between maintaining current policy and the median dot-plot signal for at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$666結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year alongside revised FOMC projections for 3.6% headline PCE in 2026 have kept the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and created a fragmented outlook for the September, October, and December meetings. With no single rate path exceeding 24% implied probability, trader sentiment reflects competing pressures from sticky core prices, energy-driven supply shocks, and a labor market showing 4.1% unemployment with recent payroll softening. The September 11 CPI release and September 16 FOMC statement will likely serve as the primary near-term catalysts, as markets weigh the balance between maintaining current policy and the median dot-plot signal for at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$666結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRecent U.S. inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year alongside revised FOMC projections for 3.6% headline PCE in 2026 have kept the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and created a fragmented outlook for the September, October, and December meetings. With no single rate path exceeding 24% implied probability, trader sentiment reflects competing pressures from sticky core prices, energy-driven supply shocks, and a labor market showing 4.1% unemployment with recent payroll softening. The September 11 CPI release and September 16 FOMC statement will likely serve as the primary near-term catalysts, as markets weigh the balance between maintaining current policy and the median dot-plot signal for at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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