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icon for 2026年聯儲局降息多少次？
經濟艙·商務

2026年聯儲局降息多少次？

icon for 2026年聯儲局降息多少次？
經濟艙·商務

2026年聯儲局降息多少次？

0（0個基點） 70.2%

1（25個基點） 16%

2（50個基點） 7%

3次（75個基點） 2.6%

Polymarket

$26,797,654 交易量

0（0個基點） 70.2%

1（25個基點） 16%

2（50個基點） 7%

3次（75個基點） 2.6%

Polymarket

$26,797,654 交易量

0（0個基點）

$4,172,926 交易量

70%

1（25個基點）

$1,243,834 交易量

16%

2（50個基點）

$1,201,418 交易量

7%

3次（75個基點）

$1,112,335 交易量

3%

4（100 個基點）

$1,193,039 交易量

2%

5次（125個基點）

$1,411,319 交易量

1%

6次（150個基點）

$2,471,357 交易量

<1%

7次（175個基點）

$1,317,190 交易量

1%

8次（200個基點）

$1,721,635 交易量

<1%

9次（225個基點）

$2,443,712 交易量

<1%

10（250個基點）

$3,109,309 交易量

<1%

11 次（275 個基點）

$3,254,852 交易量

<1%

12次以上（超過300個基點）

$2,145,557 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hot April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran conflict, has sharply reduced expectations for Federal Reserve easing this year. With the fed funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and brokerages such as BofA now projecting no cuts until 2027, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.2% implied probability of zero rate reductions in 2026. Strong labor market conditions and sticky core inflation readings have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, pushing 10-year Treasury yields higher and aligning market-implied odds with the latest CME FedWatch pricing of roughly 71% odds for no cuts through year-end. Key upcoming inflation releases and FOMC communications will determine whether this restrictive policy path persists.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,797,654
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hot April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran conflict, has sharply reduced expectations for Federal Reserve easing this year. With the fed funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and brokerages such as BofA now projecting no cuts until 2027, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.2% implied probability of zero rate reductions in 2026. Strong labor market conditions and sticky core inflation readings have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, pushing 10-year Treasury yields higher and aligning market-implied odds with the latest CME FedWatch pricing of roughly 71% odds for no cuts through year-end. Key upcoming inflation releases and FOMC communications will determine whether this restrictive policy path persists.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,797,654
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年聯儲局降息多少次？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0（0個基點）" at 70%, followed by "1（25個基點）" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年聯儲局降息多少次？" has generated $26.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年聯儲局降息多少次？," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年聯儲局降息多少次？" is "0（0個基點）" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1（25個基點）" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年聯儲局降息多少次？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.