The September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, combined with two dissents favoring further tightening at the October meeting, has anchored trader sentiment around the upper bound reaching 4.25% before year-end. The September dot plot showed a 4.1% median projection for end-2026, reflecting persistent inflation near 3.7% CPI and resilient GDP growth above 3% in Q3. Markets price in one additional hike at the December 9 meeting, where updated economic projections will be released alongside fresh data on October CPI and nonfarm payrolls. This path contrasts with the longer-run neutral rate estimate near 3.25%, underscoring how near-term labor market strength and price pressures continue to shape the market-implied odds for the target range.