Persistent elevated inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures around 3.7% amid oil prices above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and AI-driven spending, has driven the Fed's unanimous September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase by year-end. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage growth, have not offset price pressures, aligning trader consensus on the next move as a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and intervening data releases. Tail risks such as rapid disinflation from resolved energy shocks or sharper labor-market softening could still alter the path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於升息
>99% 機率
$27,473 交易量
$27,473 交易量
2028-12-31
升息
>99% 機率
$27,473 交易量
$27,473 交易量
2028-12-31
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent elevated inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures around 3.7% amid oil prices above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and AI-driven spending, has driven the Fed's unanimous September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase by year-end. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage growth, have not offset price pressures, aligning trader consensus on the next move as a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and intervening data releases. Tail risks such as rapid disinflation from resolved energy shocks or sharper labor-market softening could still alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
交易量
$27,473結束日期
2028-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET已提議結果: 升息
無爭議
最終結果: 升息
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent elevated inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures around 3.7% amid oil prices above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and AI-driven spending, has driven the Fed's unanimous September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase by year-end. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage growth, have not offset price pressures, aligning trader consensus on the next move as a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and intervening data releases. Tail risks such as rapid disinflation from resolved energy shocks or sharper labor-market softening could still alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$27,473結束日期
2028-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET已提議結果: 升息
無爭議
最終結果: 升息
Persistent elevated inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures around 3.7% amid oil prices above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and AI-driven spending, has driven the Fed's unanimous September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase by year-end. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage growth, have not offset price pressures, aligning trader consensus on the next move as a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and intervening data releases. Tail risks such as rapid disinflation from resolved energy shocks or sharper labor-market softening could still alter the path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions