Traders assign a 55.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market that has tempered expectations for earlier easing. The 39.5% odds on no change capture market caution over mixed growth signals and the risk of over-tightening. These probabilities align closely with the latest CPI and employment releases, which have reinforced a higher-for-longer policy stance versus the Fed’s dot plot projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and November meetings plus fresh nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints that could shift the balance between a hike and hold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於25 bps increase 56%
無變動 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 交易量
$687,464 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
無變動
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
無變動 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 交易量
$687,464 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 交易量
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,944 交易量
3%
無變動
$136,748 交易量
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 交易量
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 交易量
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 55.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market that has tempered expectations for earlier easing. The 39.5% odds on no change capture market caution over mixed growth signals and the risk of over-tightening. These probabilities align closely with the latest CPI and employment releases, which have reinforced a higher-for-longer policy stance versus the Fed’s dot plot projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and November meetings plus fresh nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints that could shift the balance between a hike and hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$687,464結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 55.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market that has tempered expectations for earlier easing. The 39.5% odds on no change capture market caution over mixed growth signals and the risk of over-tightening. These probabilities align closely with the latest CPI and employment releases, which have reinforced a higher-for-longer policy stance versus the Fed’s dot plot projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and November meetings plus fresh nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints that could shift the balance between a hike and hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$687,464結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETTraders assign a 55.5% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market that has tempered expectations for earlier easing. The 39.5% odds on no change capture market caution over mixed growth signals and the risk of over-tightening. These probabilities align closely with the latest CPI and employment releases, which have reinforced a higher-for-longer policy stance versus the Fed’s dot plot projections. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and November meetings plus fresh nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints that could shift the balance between a hike and hold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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