Strong labor market data and above-target inflation readings through October 2026 have driven the 87.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus on the need for further monetary tightening. Resilient GDP growth and elevated Treasury yields have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive stance rather than pause or ease policy. The 10.3% probability attached to a 50 basis point or larger increase captures residual uncertainty around the exact pace, while sub-2% odds for no change or cuts highlight limited scope for dovish surprises. November employment and CPI releases scheduled before the meeting represent the next key catalysts likely to shape final positioning.