Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target continue to anchor trader expectations for the March 17, 2027 FOMC meeting. October employment rose 165,000 with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1%, while September CPI printed 3.7% year-over-year and core measures remained elevated, reinforcing the case for further tightening after the October hold at the 3.75–4.00% target range. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent dissents favoring hikes have kept market-implied odds tilted toward no change or a 25 basis point increase, consistent with futures pricing a higher policy rate path through early 2027. The December 9 meeting and its updated dot plot remain the next key catalyst that could shift these probabilities.