Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, combined with robust economic growth and a resilient labor market, underpins the 92% market-implied probability of another federal funds rate hike before year-end. The October 28 FOMC statement highlighted elevated price pressures and strong activity, with two officials dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point increase; markets now price roughly an 80-85% chance of action at the December 9 meeting. Recent October nonfarm payrolls of 165,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% reinforce the case for tighter policy. Still, softer-than-expected November inflation data or a sharper slowdown in consumer spending could alter the path and reduce the odds of further tightening.