The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader expectations for additional tightening this year. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one further quarter-point increase by year-end, driven by resilient domestic demand, solid GDP growth forecasts around 2.3 percent, and still-elevated inflation, with August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core measures above target. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and a labor market holding near 4.1 percent unemployment have reinforced the hawkish stance under Chair Warsh. Markets now price the next likely move at the December FOMC meeting, consistent with the 81 percent implied probability for another hike before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
81% 機率
最新
$18,510 交易量
最新
$18,510 交易量
2026-12-08
是
81% 機率
最新
$18,510 交易量
最新
$18,510 交易量
2026-12-08
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader expectations for additional tightening this year. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one further quarter-point increase by year-end, driven by resilient domestic demand, solid GDP growth forecasts around 2.3 percent, and still-elevated inflation, with August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core measures above target. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and a labor market holding near 4.1 percent unemployment have reinforced the hawkish stance under Chair Warsh. Markets now price the next likely move at the December FOMC meeting, consistent with the 81 percent implied probability for another hike before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$18,510結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader expectations for additional tightening this year. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one further quarter-point increase by year-end, driven by resilient domestic demand, solid GDP growth forecasts around 2.3 percent, and still-elevated inflation, with August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core measures above target. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and a labor market holding near 4.1 percent unemployment have reinforced the hawkish stance under Chair Warsh. Markets now price the next likely move at the December FOMC meeting, consistent with the 81 percent implied probability for another hike before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,510結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETThe Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader expectations for additional tightening this year. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one further quarter-point increase by year-end, driven by resilient domestic demand, solid GDP growth forecasts around 2.3 percent, and still-elevated inflation, with August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core measures above target. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and a labor market holding near 4.1 percent unemployment have reinforced the hawkish stance under Chair Warsh. Markets now price the next likely move at the December FOMC meeting, consistent with the 81 percent implied probability for another hike before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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