Recent September FOMC action raised the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00 percent amid PCE inflation holding at 3.4 percent year-over-year for August, with the Summary of Economic Projections placing the median end-2026 dot at 4.1 percent. This backdrop supports multiple hike paths in trader pricing for the October 27–28, December 8–9, and January 26–27 meetings, yet the fragmented distribution across eight outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether cooling price pressures or resilient growth and labor data will prompt a pause after one additional tightening. Market-implied odds remain sensitive to incoming CPI, employment, and retail sales prints ahead of the October decision, where even modest downside surprises in inflation could shift probabilities toward pause sequences.