Recent Fed policy has shifted hawkish following the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% federal funds target range—the first increase since 2023—driven by headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in August and elevated energy prices. The updated Summary of Economic Projections raised the median 2026 rate path to 4.1%, with most officials seeing at least one additional hike by year-end amid resilient growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Market-implied odds via CME futures now price an 88% chance of further tightening before December, contrasting earlier cut expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the October 28 FOMC decision, October 14 CPI release, and labor data that could reinforce or ease pressure on the policy rate path.