Elevated inflation readings amid persistent energy price pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict are anchoring trader sentiment against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, supporting the 68.5% market-implied odds for no increase. With the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75% through the April FOMC meeting and the March dot plot still embedding one modest cut by year-end, recent hot CPI and PPI prints have shifted futures pricing toward roughly a 37–40% probability of a 25-basis-point hike before December. Resilient labor market data and above-target core inflation have prompted banks such as Bank of America to push any easing into 2027, reinforcing the consensus that monetary policy will remain on hold absent a sharp deterioration in growth or employment. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases and the June FOMC statement, which could further calibrate expectations around the balance of risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,100,519 交易量
$1,100,519 交易量
2026-12-09
是
$1,100,519 交易量
$1,100,519 交易量
2026-12-09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation readings amid persistent energy price pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict are anchoring trader sentiment against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, supporting the 68.5% market-implied odds for no increase. With the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75% through the April FOMC meeting and the March dot plot still embedding one modest cut by year-end, recent hot CPI and PPI prints have shifted futures pricing toward roughly a 37–40% probability of a 25-basis-point hike before December. Resilient labor market data and above-target core inflation have prompted banks such as Bank of America to push any easing into 2027, reinforcing the consensus that monetary policy will remain on hold absent a sharp deterioration in growth or employment. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases and the June FOMC statement, which could further calibrate expectations around the balance of risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,100,519結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation readings amid persistent energy price pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict are anchoring trader sentiment against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, supporting the 68.5% market-implied odds for no increase. With the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75% through the April FOMC meeting and the March dot plot still embedding one modest cut by year-end, recent hot CPI and PPI prints have shifted futures pricing toward roughly a 37–40% probability of a 25-basis-point hike before December. Resilient labor market data and above-target core inflation have prompted banks such as Bank of America to push any easing into 2027, reinforcing the consensus that monetary policy will remain on hold absent a sharp deterioration in growth or employment. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases and the June FOMC statement, which could further calibrate expectations around the balance of risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,100,519結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation readings amid persistent energy price pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict are anchoring trader sentiment against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, supporting the 68.5% market-implied odds for no increase. With the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75% through the April FOMC meeting and the March dot plot still embedding one modest cut by year-end, recent hot CPI and PPI prints have shifted futures pricing toward roughly a 37–40% probability of a 25-basis-point hike before December. Resilient labor market data and above-target core inflation have prompted banks such as Bank of America to push any easing into 2027, reinforcing the consensus that monetary policy will remain on hold absent a sharp deterioration in growth or employment. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases and the June FOMC statement, which could further calibrate expectations around the balance of risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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