Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and rising energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed futures markets to price in a roughly 37-45% chance of at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike by year-end, up sharply from near-zero odds a month earlier. The FOMC left the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in its late-April decision amid a still-resilient labor market and core PCE near 3.2%, with officials signaling data dependence rather than any immediate policy shift. CME FedWatch and Polymarket pricing now reflect trader consensus that sticky price pressures could outweigh growth concerns, though the Fed’s latest dot plot continues to project one cut later in 2026. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI release will be the next key catalysts that could further adjust rate-hike probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$148,547 交易量
2026-12-09
六月會議
1%
七月會議
6%
九月會議
16%
十月會議
26%
$148,547 交易量
六月會議
$14,616 交易量
1%
七月會議
$993 交易量
6%
九月會議
$161 交易量
16%
十月會議
$1,469 交易量
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and rising energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed futures markets to price in a roughly 37-45% chance of at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike by year-end, up sharply from near-zero odds a month earlier. The FOMC left the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in its late-April decision amid a still-resilient labor market and core PCE near 3.2%, with officials signaling data dependence rather than any immediate policy shift. CME FedWatch and Polymarket pricing now reflect trader consensus that sticky price pressures could outweigh growth concerns, though the Fed’s latest dot plot continues to project one cut later in 2026. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI release will be the next key catalysts that could further adjust rate-hike probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$148,547結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and rising energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed futures markets to price in a roughly 37-45% chance of at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike by year-end, up sharply from near-zero odds a month earlier. The FOMC left the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in its late-April decision amid a still-resilient labor market and core PCE near 3.2%, with officials signaling data dependence rather than any immediate policy shift. CME FedWatch and Polymarket pricing now reflect trader consensus that sticky price pressures could outweigh growth concerns, though the Fed’s latest dot plot continues to project one cut later in 2026. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI release will be the next key catalysts that could further adjust rate-hike probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$148,547結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and rising energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed futures markets to price in a roughly 37-45% chance of at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike by year-end, up sharply from near-zero odds a month earlier. The FOMC left the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in its late-April decision amid a still-resilient labor market and core PCE near 3.2%, with officials signaling data dependence rather than any immediate policy shift. CME FedWatch and Polymarket pricing now reflect trader consensus that sticky price pressures could outweigh growth concerns, though the Fed’s latest dot plot continues to project one cut later in 2026. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI release will be the next key catalysts that could further adjust rate-hike probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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