Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer core reading, combined with a weaker-than-expected employment report, has tempered near-term rate-hike odds for the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 38% probability of a 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Elevated inflation—driven by tariff effects, energy supply shocks, and AI-related demand pressures—remains the dominant factor sustaining hawkish sentiment, with several FOMC participants penciling in at least one hike by year-end 2026 despite the recent data softening. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming September CPI and labor market releases, along with the next FOMC statement, for signals on whether persistent price pressures above the 2% target will outweigh moderating growth indicators.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$2,242,354 交易量
2026-12-09
九月會議
23%
十月會議
40%
$2,242,354 交易量
九月會議
$833,151 交易量
23%
十月會議
$449,204 交易量
40%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer core reading, combined with a weaker-than-expected employment report, has tempered near-term rate-hike odds for the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 38% probability of a 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Elevated inflation—driven by tariff effects, energy supply shocks, and AI-related demand pressures—remains the dominant factor sustaining hawkish sentiment, with several FOMC participants penciling in at least one hike by year-end 2026 despite the recent data softening. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming September CPI and labor market releases, along with the next FOMC statement, for signals on whether persistent price pressures above the 2% target will outweigh moderating growth indicators.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$2,242,354結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer core reading, combined with a weaker-than-expected employment report, has tempered near-term rate-hike odds for the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 38% probability of a 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Elevated inflation—driven by tariff effects, energy supply shocks, and AI-related demand pressures—remains the dominant factor sustaining hawkish sentiment, with several FOMC participants penciling in at least one hike by year-end 2026 despite the recent data softening. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming September CPI and labor market releases, along with the next FOMC statement, for signals on whether persistent price pressures above the 2% target will outweigh moderating growth indicators.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,242,354結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer core reading, combined with a weaker-than-expected employment report, has tempered near-term rate-hike odds for the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 38% probability of a 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Elevated inflation—driven by tariff effects, energy supply shocks, and AI-related demand pressures—remains the dominant factor sustaining hawkish sentiment, with several FOMC participants penciling in at least one hike by year-end 2026 despite the recent data softening. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming September CPI and labor market releases, along with the next FOMC statement, for signals on whether persistent price pressures above the 2% target will outweigh moderating growth indicators.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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