Recent inflation data showing a June CPI print of 3.5% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting, positioning no change in the federal funds rate (currently 3.50–3.75%) as the leading outcome at 68.5% implied probability. The July 29 decision to hold rates—with three dissents—reinforced a cautious tightening bias amid concerns that price pressures could reaccelerate, though softer core readings have tempered immediate hike bets. Market-implied odds assign a 22.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, reflecting the potential for September data or FOMC communications to shift the path higher, while cuts remain low-probability tail risks given anchored but elevated inflation expectations. The September meeting serves as the key near-term catalyst for October pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於無變化 69%
上調25個基點 23%
下調25個基點 5%
上調50個基點以上 2.5%
$453,898 交易量
$453,898 交易量
2026-10-28
下調超過50個基點
1%
下調25個基點
5%
無變化
69%
上調25個基點
23%
上調50個基點以上
3%
無變化 69%
上調25個基點 23%
下調25個基點 5%
上調50個基點以上 2.5%
$453,898 交易量
$453,898 交易量
2026-10-28
下調超過50個基點
$99,926 交易量
1%
下調25個基點
$102,851 交易量
5%
無變化
$102,363 交易量
69%
上調25個基點
$107,565 交易量
23%
上調50個基點以上
$41,193 交易量
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data showing a June CPI print of 3.5% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting, positioning no change in the federal funds rate (currently 3.50–3.75%) as the leading outcome at 68.5% implied probability. The July 29 decision to hold rates—with three dissents—reinforced a cautious tightening bias amid concerns that price pressures could reaccelerate, though softer core readings have tempered immediate hike bets. Market-implied odds assign a 22.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, reflecting the potential for September data or FOMC communications to shift the path higher, while cuts remain low-probability tail risks given anchored but elevated inflation expectations. The September meeting serves as the key near-term catalyst for October pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$453,898結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data showing a June CPI print of 3.5% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting, positioning no change in the federal funds rate (currently 3.50–3.75%) as the leading outcome at 68.5% implied probability. The July 29 decision to hold rates—with three dissents—reinforced a cautious tightening bias amid concerns that price pressures could reaccelerate, though softer core readings have tempered immediate hike bets. Market-implied odds assign a 22.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, reflecting the potential for September data or FOMC communications to shift the path higher, while cuts remain low-probability tail risks given anchored but elevated inflation expectations. The September meeting serves as the key near-term catalyst for October pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$453,898結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data showing a June CPI print of 3.5% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting, positioning no change in the federal funds rate (currently 3.50–3.75%) as the leading outcome at 68.5% implied probability. The July 29 decision to hold rates—with three dissents—reinforced a cautious tightening bias amid concerns that price pressures could reaccelerate, though softer core readings have tempered immediate hike bets. Market-implied odds assign a 22.5% chance to a 25 basis point increase, reflecting the potential for September data or FOMC communications to shift the path higher, while cuts remain low-probability tail risks given anchored but elevated inflation expectations. The September meeting serves as the key near-term catalyst for October pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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