The Bank of Russia's July 24 decision to cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 14%—following a series of larger reductions from the 21% peak—has shaped expectations for the September 11 meeting, with the central bank signaling a more gradual easing path. Officials cited temporary one-off pressures from fuel price spikes linked to refinery capacity issues, alongside a more expansionary fiscal stance and revised 2026 forecasts showing inflation at 6–7% and GDP growth of just 0–1%. Underlying inflation measures remain near 4–5%, lending has slowed, and business demand expectations have weakened, supporting the current restrictive stance. Traders assign the highest probability to no change, reflecting these cautionary signals, while a further cut remains plausible if incoming data confirms disinflation without renewed risks.