Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on the 1.5–2.0% range as the leading market-implied outcome, reflecting the anticipated fade of the FIFA World Cup-driven rebound seen in Q2 (1.4–1.5% QoQ) amid structural headwinds. Weak domestic demand, contracting private investment, and manufacturing softness—exacerbated by USMCA review uncertainty—have prompted downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts, with private analysts clustering near 1.0–1.2% versus the government’s 2.3% target. Recent August inflation at 3.3% headline and Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate underscore subdued activity without immediate disinflation pressures. Traders price limited upside from exports while monitoring the October 30 Q3 preliminary release and any shifts in U.S. trade policy for potential swings in the closely contested 1.5–3.0% band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.5-2.0% 44%
2.5-3.0% 26%
1.0-1.5% 13.1%
2.0-2.5% 10%
$27,788 交易量
$27,788 交易量
2026-10-30
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
1%
1.0-1.5%
13%
1.5-2.0%
44%
2.0-2.5%
10%
2.5-3.0%
26%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
4%
1.5-2.0% 44%
2.5-3.0% 26%
1.0-1.5% 13.1%
2.0-2.5% 10%
$27,788 交易量
$27,788 交易量
2026-10-30
<0.5%
$500 交易量
1%
0.5-1.0%
$380 交易量
1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,501 交易量
13%
1.5-2.0%
$8,933 交易量
44%
2.0-2.5%
$12,298 交易量
10%
2.5-3.0%
$1,252 交易量
26%
3.0-3.5%
$459 交易量
1%
3.5%+
$465 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on the 1.5–2.0% range as the leading market-implied outcome, reflecting the anticipated fade of the FIFA World Cup-driven rebound seen in Q2 (1.4–1.5% QoQ) amid structural headwinds. Weak domestic demand, contracting private investment, and manufacturing softness—exacerbated by USMCA review uncertainty—have prompted downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts, with private analysts clustering near 1.0–1.2% versus the government’s 2.3% target. Recent August inflation at 3.3% headline and Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate underscore subdued activity without immediate disinflation pressures. Traders price limited upside from exports while monitoring the October 30 Q3 preliminary release and any shifts in U.S. trade policy for potential swings in the closely contested 1.5–3.0% band.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$27,788結束日期
2026-10-30市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETThis market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on the 1.5–2.0% range as the leading market-implied outcome, reflecting the anticipated fade of the FIFA World Cup-driven rebound seen in Q2 (1.4–1.5% QoQ) amid structural headwinds. Weak domestic demand, contracting private investment, and manufacturing softness—exacerbated by USMCA review uncertainty—have prompted downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts, with private analysts clustering near 1.0–1.2% versus the government’s 2.3% target. Recent August inflation at 3.3% headline and Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate underscore subdued activity without immediate disinflation pressures. Traders price limited upside from exports while monitoring the October 30 Q3 preliminary release and any shifts in U.S. trade policy for potential swings in the closely contested 1.5–3.0% band.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$27,788結束日期
2026-10-30市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETMexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on the 1.5–2.0% range as the leading market-implied outcome, reflecting the anticipated fade of the FIFA World Cup-driven rebound seen in Q2 (1.4–1.5% QoQ) amid structural headwinds. Weak domestic demand, contracting private investment, and manufacturing softness—exacerbated by USMCA review uncertainty—have prompted downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts, with private analysts clustering near 1.0–1.2% versus the government’s 2.3% target. Recent August inflation at 3.3% headline and Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate underscore subdued activity without immediate disinflation pressures. Traders price limited upside from exports while monitoring the October 30 Q3 preliminary release and any shifts in U.S. trade policy for potential swings in the closely contested 1.5–3.0% band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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