Recent soft Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.1% annualized—missing forecasts amid flat private consumption and weaker capital expenditure—has widened uncertainty around Q3 outcomes, with traders pricing the widest probability mass in the 0.0–1.6% annualized range. Persistent yen weakness near 159 per dollar, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and the Bank of Japan’s anticipated September rate hike are weighing on real incomes and business sentiment, while AI-related export demand and government subsidies provide partial offsets. Market-implied odds reflect the balance between these headwinds and resilient wage growth supporting moderate consumption, with resolution dependent on September industrial production, inflation prints, and final-quarter demand data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0.0%–0.8% 34%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
0.8%–1.6% 15%
-1.6%– -0.8% 13%
最新
最新
2026-11-15
<-2.4%
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
5%
-1.6%– -0.8%
13%
-0.8%–0.0%
22%
0.0%–0.8%
34%
0.8%–1.6%
23%
1.6%–2.4%
7%
2.4%–3.2%
2%
3.2%–4.0%
5%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 34%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
0.8%–1.6% 15%
-1.6%– -0.8% 13%
最新
最新
2026-11-15
<-2.4%
$92 交易量
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,810 交易量
5%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$117 交易量
13%
-0.8%–0.0%
$1,802 交易量
22%
0.0%–0.8%
$727 交易量
34%
0.8%–1.6%
$218 交易量
23%
1.6%–2.4%
$92 交易量
7%
2.4%–3.2%
$1,930 交易量
2%
3.2%–4.0%
$757 交易量
5%
4.0%+
$377 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent soft Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.1% annualized—missing forecasts amid flat private consumption and weaker capital expenditure—has widened uncertainty around Q3 outcomes, with traders pricing the widest probability mass in the 0.0–1.6% annualized range. Persistent yen weakness near 159 per dollar, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and the Bank of Japan’s anticipated September rate hike are weighing on real incomes and business sentiment, while AI-related export demand and government subsidies provide partial offsets. Market-implied odds reflect the balance between these headwinds and resilient wage growth supporting moderate consumption, with resolution dependent on September industrial production, inflation prints, and final-quarter demand data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
交易量
$8,921結束日期
2026-11-16市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent soft Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.1% annualized—missing forecasts amid flat private consumption and weaker capital expenditure—has widened uncertainty around Q3 outcomes, with traders pricing the widest probability mass in the 0.0–1.6% annualized range. Persistent yen weakness near 159 per dollar, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and the Bank of Japan’s anticipated September rate hike are weighing on real incomes and business sentiment, while AI-related export demand and government subsidies provide partial offsets. Market-implied odds reflect the balance between these headwinds and resilient wage growth supporting moderate consumption, with resolution dependent on September industrial production, inflation prints, and final-quarter demand data.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$8,921結束日期
2026-11-16市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent soft Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.1% annualized—missing forecasts amid flat private consumption and weaker capital expenditure—has widened uncertainty around Q3 outcomes, with traders pricing the widest probability mass in the 0.0–1.6% annualized range. Persistent yen weakness near 159 per dollar, elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments, and the Bank of Japan’s anticipated September rate hike are weighing on real incomes and business sentiment, while AI-related export demand and government subsidies provide partial offsets. Market-implied odds reflect the balance between these headwinds and resilient wage growth supporting moderate consumption, with resolution dependent on September industrial production, inflation prints, and final-quarter demand data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions