Canada’s preliminary September 2026 GDP contracted 0.1% month-over-month per Statistics Canada’s October 30 advance estimate, aligning with the market’s leading -0.2 to -0.1% outcome at 62% implied probability. Declines in manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and oil-and-gas extraction outweighed gains in utilities and wholesale trade, following two consecutive flat monthly readings in July and August. This produced a softer 1.3% annualized Q3 pace, below the Bank of Canada’s 2% forecast in its late-October Monetary Policy Report. The final official figure, due November 30, remains subject to revision and will determine resolution amid ongoing trade and energy price uncertainties.