Recent quarterly data showing 0.5% UK GDP growth in Q2 2026, following 0.6% in Q1, alongside 2025 annual expansion of 1.2%, underpins trader positioning around the 1-2% range for full-year 2026. Consensus forecasts from the OECD (1.1%), IMF (1.0%), and others cluster in this band, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-related investment offset by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and tighter financial conditions that may prompt Bank of England policy adjustments. Upgraded projections this month, including OECD revisions, reinforce the market-implied odds while highlighting risks from slower global growth and potential rate path shifts that could compress or lift the outcome.