Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp rises in global energy prices, prompting major forecasters including the IMF, OECD, EY, and Vanguard to downgrade UK GDP growth expectations for 2026 to a 0.6–0.8 percent range. This energy shock, compounded by higher inflation and tighter financial conditions, has overshadowed the solid 0.6 percent Q1 expansion reported by the ONS, which predates the disruption and may not carry forward. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 40–43 percent for both 0–1 percent and 2–3 percent annual growth, trader sentiment reflects balanced uncertainty over whether the Bank of England’s policy stance and resilient services sector can offset the drag or if further weakness materializes in coming quarters.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於低於0% 56%
3-4% 4.2%
0-1% 0
1-2% 0
最新
最新
2027-02-12
低於0%
34%
0-1%
44%
1-2%
43%
2-3%
40%
3-4%
6%
4-5%
40%
5%+
27%
低於0% 56%
3-4% 4.2%
0-1% 0
1-2% 0
最新
最新
2027-02-12
低於0%
$345 交易量
34%
0-1%
$386 交易量
44%
1-2%
$210 交易量
43%
2-3%
$247 交易量
40%
3-4%
$201 交易量
6%
4-5%
$428 交易量
40%
5%+
$252 交易量
27%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp rises in global energy prices, prompting major forecasters including the IMF, OECD, EY, and Vanguard to downgrade UK GDP growth expectations for 2026 to a 0.6–0.8 percent range. This energy shock, compounded by higher inflation and tighter financial conditions, has overshadowed the solid 0.6 percent Q1 expansion reported by the ONS, which predates the disruption and may not carry forward. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 40–43 percent for both 0–1 percent and 2–3 percent annual growth, trader sentiment reflects balanced uncertainty over whether the Bank of England’s policy stance and resilient services sector can offset the drag or if further weakness materializes in coming quarters.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
交易量
$2,068結束日期
2027-02-12市場開放時間
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp rises in global energy prices, prompting major forecasters including the IMF, OECD, EY, and Vanguard to downgrade UK GDP growth expectations for 2026 to a 0.6–0.8 percent range. This energy shock, compounded by higher inflation and tighter financial conditions, has overshadowed the solid 0.6 percent Q1 expansion reported by the ONS, which predates the disruption and may not carry forward. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 40–43 percent for both 0–1 percent and 2–3 percent annual growth, trader sentiment reflects balanced uncertainty over whether the Bank of England’s policy stance and resilient services sector can offset the drag or if further weakness materializes in coming quarters.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$2,068結束日期
2027-02-12市場開放時間
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp rises in global energy prices, prompting major forecasters including the IMF, OECD, EY, and Vanguard to downgrade UK GDP growth expectations for 2026 to a 0.6–0.8 percent range. This energy shock, compounded by higher inflation and tighter financial conditions, has overshadowed the solid 0.6 percent Q1 expansion reported by the ONS, which predates the disruption and may not carry forward. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 40–43 percent for both 0–1 percent and 2–3 percent annual growth, trader sentiment reflects balanced uncertainty over whether the Bank of England’s policy stance and resilient services sector can offset the drag or if further weakness materializes in coming quarters.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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