China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the annual legislative sessions, continues to anchor trader expectations near the center of that range. First-quarter 2026 data showed a 5.0 percent expansion, supported by resilient exports, industrial production, and front-loaded fiscal outlays, which has kept the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome firmly in the lead at 68.5 percent. Persistent softness in domestic consumption and property investment, together with higher energy costs linked to Middle East developments, have capped upside probabilities for the 5.0–6.0 percent band at 29.5 percent. Most external forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and major banks cluster between 4.4 percent and 4.8 percent, reinforcing the current pricing while leaving modest room for policy adjustments or trade shifts to influence final results.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.0–5.0% 69%
5.0–6.0% 29.3%
6.0-7.0% 1.9%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$535,153 交易量
$535,153 交易量
2026-01-31
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
69%
5.0–6.0%
29%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 69%
5.0–6.0% 29.3%
6.0-7.0% 1.9%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$535,153 交易量
$535,153 交易量
2026-01-31
低於1.0%
$41,842 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$41,020 交易量
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$21,426 交易量
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$44,081 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$136,640 交易量
69%
5.0–6.0%
$52,038 交易量
29%
6.0-7.0%
$48,639 交易量
2%
7.0–8.0%
$44,890 交易量
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$20,608 交易量
<1%
9.0%及以上
$83,968 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the annual legislative sessions, continues to anchor trader expectations near the center of that range. First-quarter 2026 data showed a 5.0 percent expansion, supported by resilient exports, industrial production, and front-loaded fiscal outlays, which has kept the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome firmly in the lead at 68.5 percent. Persistent softness in domestic consumption and property investment, together with higher energy costs linked to Middle East developments, have capped upside probabilities for the 5.0–6.0 percent band at 29.5 percent. Most external forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and major banks cluster between 4.4 percent and 4.8 percent, reinforcing the current pricing while leaving modest room for policy adjustments or trade shifts to influence final results.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$535,153結束日期
2026-01-31市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the annual legislative sessions, continues to anchor trader expectations near the center of that range. First-quarter 2026 data showed a 5.0 percent expansion, supported by resilient exports, industrial production, and front-loaded fiscal outlays, which has kept the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome firmly in the lead at 68.5 percent. Persistent softness in domestic consumption and property investment, together with higher energy costs linked to Middle East developments, have capped upside probabilities for the 5.0–6.0 percent band at 29.5 percent. Most external forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and major banks cluster between 4.4 percent and 4.8 percent, reinforcing the current pricing while leaving modest room for policy adjustments or trade shifts to influence final results.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$535,153結束日期
2026-01-31市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the annual legislative sessions, continues to anchor trader expectations near the center of that range. First-quarter 2026 data showed a 5.0 percent expansion, supported by resilient exports, industrial production, and front-loaded fiscal outlays, which has kept the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome firmly in the lead at 68.5 percent. Persistent softness in domestic consumption and property investment, together with higher energy costs linked to Middle East developments, have capped upside probabilities for the 5.0–6.0 percent band at 29.5 percent. Most external forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and major banks cluster between 4.4 percent and 4.8 percent, reinforcing the current pricing while leaving modest room for policy adjustments or trade shifts to influence final results.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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